Made on
Jul 31, 2026
Price at call
$171.02
6-month call
Neutral -4.7%
Target by Jan 2027
$163.00
Great value below
$110.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.7% to $163.00
Predicted High
$178.00
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$163.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 31, 2026 2:07 am
Neutral
ANET trends range-bound to
$163.00
(-4.7% from $171.02)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisAI infrastructure narrative and quality moat keep ANET bid despite rich valuation; momentum likely persists near-term but rich multiples and eventual AI capex digestion cap upside, producing a mild drift-then-fade path rather than a sharp mean-reversion.
Invalidated ifBreak below $155 on volume, or a hyperscaler capex cut announcement, would invalidate the sustained-premium thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $171.02 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 31, 2026 | — | $171.02 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 14, 2026 | $148.99–$193.05 typical range · internal point $173.50 | — | ±12.9% | 6/10 | Momentum and AI narrative persist near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $203.62 on Aug 13, 2026 = +19.1% vs the call (predicted +1.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 17.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±12.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 31, 2026 | $139.10–$202.94 typical range · internal point $175.00 | — | ±18.7% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind, no earnings catalyst yet |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $178.00 | — | +4.1% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, AI capex chatter |
| 3 months | Oct 31, 2026 | $174.00 | — | +1.7% | 3/10 | Post-print digestion, high multiple weighs |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $170.00 | — | -0.6% | 3/10 | Value gravity begins nudging price sideways |
| 5 months | Dec 31, 2026 | $166.00 | — | -2.9% | 3/10 | Year-end profit taking on extended winners |
| 6 months | Jan 31, 2027 | $163.00 | — | -4.7% | 3/10 | Mild fade as valuation friction accumulates |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $148.28 (-13.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $171.02 |
| Composite fair value | $42.26 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $50.04 |
| DCF fair value | $46.86 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $110.00 |
| Value net score | -75 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +85 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 65.5% 3m 64.7% 6m 60.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.05 3m 1.87 5m 2.14 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 13.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ANET-20260730-203023-0f34 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ANET-20260730-215659-f414 |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ANET-20260730-215659-f414 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ANET-20260730-215659-f414 |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-ANET-20260730-215659-f414 |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ANET-20260730-211427-5196 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ANET-20260730-211427-5196 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $171.02 | $163.00 | -4.7% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 26, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $165.45 | $148.59 | -10.2% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.