Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$130.23
6-month call
Neutral -4.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$124.00
Great value below
$100.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.8% to $124.00
Predicted High
$133.10
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$124.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 12:45 am
Neutral
MRK trends range-bound to
$124.00
(-4.8% from $130.23)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisMRK trades well above composite fair value ($95.69) but momentum is strong (21% trailing 6mo) and earnings on 8/3 has a 3/3 beat streak. Expect a post-print pop or hold, then gradual value gravity pulling toward the anchored-PE zone as the multi-month picture reasserts.
Invalidated ifAn earnings miss or guidance cut on 8/3 dropping shares below $120, or a breakout above $140 on pipeline catalyst, would falsify.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $130.23 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $130.23 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $122.50–$137.96 typical range · internal point $132.80 | — | ±5.9% | 6/10 | Earnings beat streak likely extends, modest post-print lift |
| What actually happened: closed $135.85 on Aug 14, 2026 = +4.3% vs the call (predicted +2.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.3 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.9%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $119.02–$141.44 typical range · internal point $133.10 | — | ±8.6% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift holds with defensive bid intact |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $131.50 | — | +1.0% | 5/10 | Momentum cools, valuation overhang starts pressing |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $129.00 | — | -0.9% | 5/10 | Value gravity toward anchored-PE begins asserting |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $127.20 | — | -2.3% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims extended defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $125.50 | — | -3.6% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $124.00 | — | -4.8% | 3/10 | Fair-value pull dominates as sentiment stays neutral |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $125.69 (-3.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $130.23 |
| Composite fair value | $95.69 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $92.84 |
| DCF fair value | $98.71 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $132.14 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $100.00 |
| Value net score | -68 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +48 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.2% 3m 29.8% 6m 27.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.37 3m -0.35 5m 0.10 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 21.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | MRK-20260801-001034-debd |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-MRK-20260801-003431-3051 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-MRK-20260801-003431-3051 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-MRK-20260801-003431-3051 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-MRK-20260801-003431-3051 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | MRK-20260801-001034-debd |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | MRK-20260801-001034-debd |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $130.23 | $124.00 | -4.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 30, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $129.38 | $137.30 | +6.1% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.