Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$57.92
6-month call
Bear -8.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$52.90
Great value below
$42.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.7% to $52.90
Predicted High
$57.75
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$52.90
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:01 am
Bear
TXNM trends lower to
$52.90
(-8.7% from $57.92)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisTXNM trades well above every valuation anchor with negative value and quality scores, but ultra-low beta and no earnings catalyst mean gravity works slowly. Expect a gradual drift toward the mid-50s and eventually low-50s as the premium erodes, not a sharp repricing.
Invalidated ifA break above $61 on rate-cut acceleration or a takeout rumor invalidates; conversely a sudden drop below $50 would front-load the thesis faster than modeled.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $57.92 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $57.92 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $57.10–$58.74 typical range · internal point $57.75 | — | ±1.4% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, no catalyst, mildly negative sentiment |
| What actually happened: closed $57.40 on Aug 14, 2026 = -0.9% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±1.4%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $56.73–$59.11 typical range · internal point $57.30 | — | ±2.1% | 6/10 | Slow bleed as valuation gap persists |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $56.40 | — | -2.6% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins asserting through autumn |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $55.50 | — | -4.2% | 5/10 | Rate backdrop and premium compression continue |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $54.60 | — | -5.7% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims expensive defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $53.80 | — | -7.1% | 4/10 | January reset toward composite fair value zone |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $52.90 | — | -8.7% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $49.31 (-14.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $57.92 |
| Composite fair value | $39.34 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $40.04 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $31.72 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $42.00 |
| Value net score | -77 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -50 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 6.4% 3m 7.1% 6m 6.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 0.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.14 3m 0.06 5m 0.03 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | TXNM-20260730-181801-6985 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-TXNM-20260730-182731-209e |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-TXNM-20260730-182731-209e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-TXNM-20260730-182731-209e |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-TXNM-20260730-182731-209e |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | TXNM-20260730-181801-6985 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $57.92 | $52.90 | -8.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 5, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $56.94 | $52.07 | -8.6% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.