Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$127.13
6-month call
Bull +24.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$158.00
Great value below
$115.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+24.3% to $158.00
Predicted High
$158.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$126.50
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 1:02 am
Bull
CHKP trends higher to
$158.00
(+24.3% from $127.13)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCHKP is a deeply discounted, low-beta incumbent with strong quality and earnings consistency, but a stale narrative and neutral regime cap near-term upside. Expect a slow drift-then-recover as value gravity pulls toward fair value over months, with no imminent catalyst to force a snap rerating.
Invalidated ifA break below $115 bear scenario on volume, or loss of earnings beat streak, would falsify the mean-reversion thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $127.13 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $127.13 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $117.21–$137.05 typical range · internal point $126.50 | — | ±7.8% | 6/10 | Drift continues, no catalyst, low-beta insulation |
| What actually happened: closed $131.75 on Aug 14, 2026 = +3.6% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.1 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.8%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $112.75–$141.51 typical range · internal point $128.00 | — | ±11.3% | 5/10 | Stabilization near current levels, sentiment stale |
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $132.50 | — | +4.2% | 5/10 | Early value bid emerges, oversold bounce |
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $138.00 | — | +8.6% | 4/10 | Earnings print likely reinforces beat streak |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $145.00 | — | +14.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity accelerates, discount narrows |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $152.00 | — | +19.6% | 3/10 | Continued rerating toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $158.00 | — | +24.3% | 3/10 | Approaches deterministic endpoint, still below fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $158.76 (+24.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $127.13 |
| Composite fair value | $184.08 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $235.95 |
| DCF fair value | $219.65 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $115.00 |
| Value net score | +15 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +44 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 47.3% 3m 39.2% 6m 49.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.78 3m -0.56 5m -0.54 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -28.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | CHKP-20260730-175301-46c4 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHKP-20260730-182641-dc2c |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHKP-20260730-182641-dc2c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHKP-20260730-182641-dc2c |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | ext-CHKP-20260730-182641-dc2c |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 30, 2026 | freshest | CHKP-20260730-175301-46c4 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 31, 2026 | freshest | CHKP-20260730-175301-46c4 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.