Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$105.87
6-month call
Bull +16.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$123.50
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+16.7% to $123.50
Predicted High
$123.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$106.80
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 1:31 am
Bull
SCHW trends higher to
$123.50
(+16.7% from $105.87)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisSCHW trades below composite fair value ($152) with strong quality, consistent earnings beats, and a mildly supportive risk-on tape. Expect gradual value-convergence toward the $120s over six months, with modest early drift as sentiment is only mildly positive and no earnings catalyst is imminent.
Invalidated ifBreak below $95 support or regime flip to risk-off with rate shock would invalidate the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $105.87 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $105.87 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $100.46–$111.28 typical range · internal point $106.80 | — | ±5.1% | 6/10 | Mild risk-on drift, low vol, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $110.58 on Aug 17, 2026 = +4.5% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.1%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $98.03–$113.71 typical range · internal point $108.20 | — | ±7.4% | 6/10 | Steady compounder narrative, gentle sentiment lift |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $110.50 | — | +4.4% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings approach, beat streak supports bid |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $114.00 | — | +7.7% | 5/10 | Likely earnings beat reinforces quality thesis |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $117.50 | — | +11.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward anchored-PE $124 begins |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $121.00 | — | +14.3% | 4/10 | Continued convergence, year-end positioning |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $123.50 | — | +16.7% | 3/10 | Approaching anchored-PE fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $130.64 (+23.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $105.87 |
| Composite fair value | $152.15 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $165.25 |
| DCF fair value | $166.23 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $123.99 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | +33 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +60 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 21.6% 3m 25.6% 6m 29.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.36 3m -0.24 5m 0.14 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 1.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | SCHW-20260804-002630-6c95 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCHW-20260804-011400-fb51 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCHW-20260804-011400-fb51 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCHW-20260804-011400-fb51 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCHW-20260804-011400-fb51 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | SCHW-20260804-002630-6c95 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.