Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$35.16
6-month call
Bull +23.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$43.50
Great value below
$32.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+23.7% to $43.50
Predicted High
$43.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$35.40
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:47 am
Bull
G trends higher to
$43.50
(+23.7% from $35.16)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisGenpact trades well below composite fair value ($56) with strong quality and consistent earnings beats, but suffers a sentiment vacuum and -20% trailing return. Expect a slow grind higher as value gravity pulls toward the $42 anchored-PE over months, with early points near spot given no catalyst and negative beta damping regime tailwinds.
Invalidated ifA close below $32 (attractive-value floor breach signaling further derating) or failure to reclaim $38 by m3 would invalidate the mean-reversion thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $35.16 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $35.16 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $31.99–$38.33 typical range · internal point $35.40 | — | ±9.0% | 7/10 | No catalyst, low beta, drifts near spot |
| What actually happened: closed $33.70 on Aug 17, 2026 = -4.2% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±9.0%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $30.56–$39.76 typical range · internal point $35.90 | — | ±13.1% | 6/10 | Sentiment vacuum persists, mild value bid |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $37.20 | — | +5.8% | 5/10 | Earnings season approaches, value screens attract |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $39.00 | — | +10.9% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely beats streak, rerating begins |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $40.50 | — | +15.2% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift toward anchored PE |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $42.00 | — | +19.5% | 4/10 | Convergence to anchored-PE fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $43.50 | — | +23.7% | 3/10 | Continued grind toward composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $47.89 (+36.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $35.16 |
| Composite fair value | $56.38 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $52.89 |
| DCF fair value | $69.45 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $42.01 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $32.00 |
| Value net score | +32 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +64 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.9% 3m 45.3% 6m 44.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.84 3m -0.98 5m -0.41 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -20.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | G-20260803-164946-c090 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260803-175115-ef73 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260803-175115-ef73 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260803-175115-ef73 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260803-175115-ef73 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | G-20260803-164946-c090 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | G-20260803-164946-c090 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.