Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$46.10
6-month call
Bull +13.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$52.50
Great value below
$42.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+13.9% to $52.50
Predicted High
$52.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$46.30
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:48 am
Bull
BKE trends higher to
$52.50
(+13.9% from $46.10)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisBKE is a quiet, low-beta compounder trading below composite fair value with modest sentiment drag and no near-term catalyst. Expect a slow grind higher toward the signal-adjusted anchor as value gravity works, with early points close to spot and later points drifting up.
Invalidated ifBreak below $42 support or a same-store-sales miss on next print would negate the value-convergence path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $46.10 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $46.10 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $42.61–$49.59 typical range · internal point $46.30 | — | ±7.6% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, no catalyst, risk-on tape supportive |
| What actually happened: closed $43.19 on Aug 17, 2026 = -6.3% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $41.04–$51.16 typical range · internal point $46.80 | — | ±11.0% | 6/10 | earnings Aug 21 in window Quiet grind, small sentiment drag offset by regime |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $47.90 | — | +3.9% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins, possible Q3 print approaches |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $49.50 | — | +7.4% | 5/10 | Earnings beat streak likely extends, re-rating starts |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $50.80 | — | +10.2% | 4/10 | Holiday retail seasonality, sentiment inflects positive |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $51.90 | — | +12.6% | 4/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted fair value anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $52.50 | — | +13.9% | 3/10 | Endpoint near baseline, dividend and value support |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $52.28 (+13.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $46.10 |
| Composite fair value | $57.86 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $52.66 |
| DCF fair value | $62.09 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $63.26 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $42.00 |
| Value net score | +25 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +35 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 33.9% 3m 38.0% 6m 32.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.34 3m 0.13 5m 0.47 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | BKE-20260803-164946-3ed1 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260803-175115-a3b5 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260803-175115-a3b5 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260803-175115-a3b5 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-BKE-20260803-175115-a3b5 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | BKE-20260803-164946-3ed1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | BKE-20260803-164946-3ed1 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.