Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$107.26
6-month call
Bull +11.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$120.00
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+11.9% to $120.00
Predicted High
$120.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$106.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:48 am
Bull
EPAM trends higher to
$120.00
(+11.9% from $107.26)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisEPAM is a beaten-down IT-services name (-48.6% 6mo) with modest sentiment healing and value gravity toward a $125-$140 fair-value zone. Expect a choppy recovery: near-term drift as fallen-angel bid stabilizes, then gradual convergence toward the deterministic $119 endpoint as regime stays risk-on, with an earnings-driven inflection possible mid-window.
Invalidated ifBreak below $95 support or regime flip to risk-off with services sector underperforming would falsify recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $107.26 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $107.26 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $94.98–$119.54 typical range · internal point $108.50 | — | ±11.4% | 6/10 | Stabilization near current after prolonged drawdown |
| What actually happened: closed $98.73 on Aug 17, 2026 = -8.0% vs the call (predicted +1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 9.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $89.47–$125.05 typical range · internal point $106.00 | — | ±16.6% | 5/10 | Consolidation as fallen-angel bid tested |
| What actually happened: closed $119.88 on Sep 3, 2026 = +11.8% vs the call (predicted -1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 12.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±16.6%: inside the band · S&P -0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $110.50 | — | +3.0% | 5/10 | Sentiment healing supports modest lift |
| What actually happened: closed $108.29 on Oct 2, 2026 = +1.0% vs the call (predicted +3.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.1 pp · accuracy 9/10 · S&P -0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $114.00 | — | +6.3% | 5/10 | Q3 print potential catalyst, beat cadence |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $116.50 | — | +8.6% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $118.00 | — | +10.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning in oversold names |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $120.00 | — | +11.9% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $119.36 (+11.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $107.26 |
| Composite fair value | $125.50 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $134.11 |
| DCF fair value | $140.13 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $140.63 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | +14 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +37 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 48.4% 3m 57.5% 6m 60.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.50 3m -0.86 5m -0.46 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -48.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | EPAM-20260803-164946-600b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-EPAM-20260803-175115-2480 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-EPAM-20260803-175115-2480 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-EPAM-20260803-175115-2480 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-EPAM-20260803-175115-2480 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | EPAM-20260803-164946-600b |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | EPAM-20260803-164946-600b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $114.80 | $118.50 | +3.2% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $107.26 | $120.00 | +11.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.