Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$165.76
6-month call
Bull +12.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$186.00
Great value below
$150.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+12.2% to $186.00
Predicted High
$186.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$167.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:48 am
Bull
ACN trends higher to
$186.00
(+12.2% from $165.76)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisACN trades at a deep discount to composite fair value ($191.57) after a brutal 37% drawdown, with quality intact and sentiment stabilizing. In a risk-on regime with negative beta providing crossover appeal, gradual mean-reversion toward mid-$180s is likely, though AI-disruption overhang caps upside and keeps the path measured rather than explosive.
Invalidated ifA break below $150 on heavy volume, or a guidance cut citing AI-driven consulting demand erosion, would falsify the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $165.76 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $165.76 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $144.73–$186.79 typical range · internal point $167.20 | — | ±12.7% | 6/10 | Stabilization bounce as oversold conditions ease |
| What actually happened: closed $169.98 on Aug 17, 2026 = +2.6% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.7 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±12.7%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $135.28–$196.24 typical range · internal point $170.50 | — | ±18.4% | 5/10 | Value framing gains traction in risk-on tape |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $174.00 | — | +5.0% | 5/10 | Slow drift higher, no catalyst but valuation gravity |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $178.50 | — | +7.7% | 5/10 | Earnings print reinforces beat streak, quality reasserts |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $182.00 | — | +9.8% | 4/10 | Continued mean-reversion toward anchored PE |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $184.50 | — | +11.3% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors bruised quality names |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $186.00 | — | +12.2% | 3/10 | Approaches composite fair value, AI overhang caps rally |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $189.49 (+14.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $165.76 |
| Composite fair value | $191.57 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $217.14 |
| DCF fair value | $220.98 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $193.90 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $150.00 |
| Value net score | +10 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +70 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 53.4% 3m 63.7% 6m 55.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.80 3m -1.12 5m -0.47 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -37.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ACN-20260803-133649-044a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260803-135909-fff7 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260803-135909-fff7 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260803-135909-fff7 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260803-135909-fff7 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ACN-20260803-133649-044a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
5 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $185.26 | $205.75 | +11.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $165.76 | $186.00 | +12.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $146.99 | $176.50 | +20.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $140.86 | $172.00 | +22.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
| Jul 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $135.23 | $209.98 | +55.3% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.