CTSH
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Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation
Technology · Information Technology Services
Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$55.17
6-month call
Bull +15.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$63.50
Great value below
$48.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+15.1% to $63.50
Predicted High
$63.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$54.80
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:49 am
Bull
CTSH trends higher to
$63.50
(+15.1% from $55.17)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCTSH trades well below composite fair value ($68.87) after a brutal 32% 6-month drawdown, with a risk-on regime and mild AI tailwind providing conditions for gradual mean reversion. The path is a slow dip-then-recover: near-term drift as sentiment remains soft, then value gravity pulls toward the mid-60s over months as the drawdown narrative exhausts.
Invalidated ifA break below $48 on volume, or a guide-down at the next print signaling structural revenue deceleration, would falsify the recovery leg.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $55.17 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $55.17 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $49.03–$61.31 typical range · internal point $54.80 | — | ±11.1% | 6/10 | Soft sentiment and negative momentum keep drift lower near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $56.61 on Aug 17, 2026 = +2.6% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.3 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±11.1%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $46.27–$64.07 typical range · internal point $55.40 | — | ±16.1% | 5/10 | Stabilization as risk-on regime supports beaten-down names |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $57.20 | — | +3.7% | 5/10 | Early value bid emerges as drawdown narrative fades |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $59.50 | — | +7.8% | 5/10 | Q3 print window; modest beat history supports drift up |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $61.80 | — | +12.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward fair-value composite continues |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $62.90 | — | +14.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into oversold IT-services names |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $63.50 | — | +15.1% | 3/10 | Approaches deterministic baseline near mid-60s |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $62.66 (+13.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $55.17 |
| Composite fair value | $68.87 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $74.61 |
| DCF fair value | $74.90 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $74.10 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $48.00 |
| Value net score | +27 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +36 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 58.1% 3m 55.9% 6m 49.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -2.38 3m -0.89 5m -0.42 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -32.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | CTSH-20260803-124340-5754 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTSH-20260803-131414-f5c2 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTSH-20260803-131414-f5c2 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTSH-20260803-131414-f5c2 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTSH-20260803-131414-f5c2 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | CTSH-20260803-124340-5754 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $56.61 | $63.80 | +12.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $55.17 | $63.50 | +15.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.