Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$46.02
6-month call
Bull +19.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$54.80
Great value below
$42.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+19.1% to $54.80
Predicted High
$54.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$45.60
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:41 am
Bull
LVS trends higher to
$54.80
(+19.1% from $46.02)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisLVS trades well below composite fair value with a risk-on regime and calm tape offsetting China-policy overhang. Near-term drift is modest as sentiment digests the fallen-angel status, but value gravity pulls the tape toward the mid-50s over the six-month window.
Invalidated ifA break below $42 on China policy escalation or Macau GGR miss, or failure to reclaim $48 by month 2, invalidates the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $46.02 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $46.02 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $43.61–$48.43 typical range · internal point $46.40 | — | ±5.2% | 6/10 | Calm tape, risk-on regime, minor drift higher |
| What actually happened: closed $45.88 on Aug 19, 2026 = -0.3% vs the call (predicted +0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.1 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±5.2%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $42.53–$49.51 typical range · internal point $45.60 | — | ±7.6% | 5/10 | Sentiment overhang caps early rally, mild fade |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $47.80 | — | +3.9% | 5/10 | Value buyers step in below $46 support |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $50.20 | — | +9.1% | 5/10 | Q3 print catalyst, EPS beat streak continues |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $52.10 | — | +13.2% | 4/10 | Value convergence toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $53.40 | — | +16.0% | 4/10 | Macau seasonality and CNY travel tailwind |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $54.80 | — | +19.1% | 4/10 | Continued mean reversion toward $55.56 anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $51.43 (+11.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $46.02 |
| Composite fair value | $55.56 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $58.00 |
| DCF fair value | $59.40 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $63.77 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $42.00 |
| Value net score | +20 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +38 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.7% 3m 26.3% 6m 28.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.54 3m -0.08 5m 0.53 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -17.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | LVS-20260803-122702-2266 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LVS-20260803-132828-ba97 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LVS-20260803-132828-ba97 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LVS-20260803-132828-ba97 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LVS-20260803-132828-ba97 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | LVS-20260803-122702-2266 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | LVS-20260803-122702-2266 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $45.43 | $53.50 | +17.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $46.02 | $54.80 | +19.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.