Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$130.60
6-month call
Bull +20.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$157.50
Great value below
$105.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+20.6% to $157.50
Predicted High
$157.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$131.80
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 2:41 am
Bull
LDOS trends higher to
$157.50
(+20.6% from $130.60)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisLDOS is a beaten-down low-beta defense compounder trading well below multiple fair-value anchors with quiet contract-win support and no active narrative. Expect a gradual mean-reversion drift higher over 6 months, accelerating modestly as risk-on regime persists and value gravity pulls toward the mid-150s to 160s, though the lack of catalysts caps the pace.
Invalidated ifA break below $120 on heavy volume, a major contract loss, or a defense-budget shock would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $130.60 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $130.60 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $119.93–$141.27 typical range · internal point $131.80 | — | ±8.2% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift, risk-on regime, no near catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $147.27 on Aug 19, 2026 = +12.8% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 11.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $115.14–$146.06 typical range · internal point $134.50 | — | ±11.8% | 6/10 | Quiet contract-win drumbeat, mean-reversion begins |
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $138.00 | — | +5.7% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite anchors |
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $143.00 | — | +9.5% | 5/10 | Earnings likely inside window, beat history supports |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $148.00 | — | +13.3% | 4/10 | Post-print re-rating toward fair value zone |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $153.00 | — | +17.2% | 4/10 | Continued convergence, sentiment neutral |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $157.50 | — | +20.6% | 4/10 | Approaches deterministic baseline, discount narrows |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $158.89 (+21.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $130.60 |
| Composite fair value | $177.79 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $191.45 |
| DCF fair value | $197.52 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $206.49 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $105.00 |
| Value net score | +25 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +60 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 41.9% 3m 41.0% 6m 40.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.28 3m 0.27 5m 0.25 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -30.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | LDOS-20260803-122903-4371 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260803-132827-7539 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260803-132827-7539 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260803-132827-7539 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260803-132827-7539 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | LDOS-20260803-122903-4371 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.