Made on
Aug 6, 2026
Price at call
$115.04
6-month call
Bull +13.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$131.00
Great value below
$100.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+13.9% to $131.00
Predicted High
$131.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$113.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 6, 2026 1:04 am
Bull
COP trends higher to
$131.00
(+13.9% from $115.04)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCOP trades well below composite fair value with decent quality and a risk-on tape, but low beta and a fragile energy-transition narrative slow the re-rating. Expect gradual drift higher toward the anchored-PE zone, not a full convergence to $171 within six months.
Invalidated ifBreak below $100 on rising volume, or crude collapse triggering regime flip to risk-off
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $115.04 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 6, 2026 | — | $115.04 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 20, 2026 | $107.96–$122.12 typical range · internal point $114.20 | — | ±6.2% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift, no catalyst, minor consolidation |
| What actually happened: closed $130.58 on Aug 19, 2026 = +13.5% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 14.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 6, 2026 | $104.77–$125.31 typical range · internal point $113.00 | — | ±8.9% | 5/10 | Sentiment drag from transition narrative, mild pullback |
| 2 months | Oct 6, 2026 | $116.50 | — | +1.3% | 5/10 | Value buyers step in near $113 anchor |
| 3 months | Nov 6, 2026 | $121.00 | — | +5.2% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely beats, quality lens supports |
| 4 months | Dec 6, 2026 | $125.00 | — | +8.7% | 4/10 | Gradual re-rating toward fair value composite |
| 5 months | Jan 6, 2027 | $128.50 | — | +11.7% | 4/10 | Continued grind, risk-on tape tailwind fades |
| 6 months | Feb 6, 2027 | $131.00 | — | +13.9% | 3/10 | Partial convergence, well short of $162 signal-adjusted |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $142.84 (+24.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $115.04 |
| Composite fair value | $171.62 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $162.01 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $113.68 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $100.00 |
| Value net score | +22 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +63 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.8% 3m 30.9% 6m 31.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.00 3m -0.99 5m -1.06 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 12.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | COP-20260806-000518-d183 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-COP-20260806-005228-3009 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-COP-20260806-005228-3009 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-COP-20260806-005228-3009 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | ext-COP-20260806-005228-3009 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | COP-20260806-000518-d183 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 6, 2026 | freshest | COP-20260806-000518-d183 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.