Made on
Aug 8, 2026
Price at call
$30.21
6-month call
Bull +7.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$32.60
Great value below
$26.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+7.9% to $32.60
Predicted High
$32.60
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$30.10
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 8, 2026 12:54 am
Bull
IBN trends higher to
$32.60
(+7.9% from $30.21)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisIBN trades far below multiple fair value anchors but ADR structural apathy and low beta cap upside; expect a mild, steady grind higher in a risk-on tape with modest mean-reversion toward the anchored-PE range, not the extreme DCF endpoint.
Invalidated ifA break below $26 on India macro shock or NPA scare, or failure to reclaim $31 within a month, would falsify the drift-higher thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $30.21 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 8, 2026 | — | $30.21 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 22, 2026 | $28.98–$31.44 typical range · internal point $30.35 | — | ±4.1% | 7/10 | Calm risk-on tape, low-beta drift near current levels |
| What actually happened: closed $29.90 on Aug 21, 2026 = -1.0% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.1%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 8, 2026 | $28.43–$31.99 typical range · internal point $30.55 | — | ±5.9% | 6/10 | Quiet ADR flow, quality narrative provides mild lift |
| 2 months | Oct 8, 2026 | $30.10 | — | -0.4% | 5/10 | Minor pullback toward attractive-below zone, no catalyst |
| 3 months | Nov 8, 2026 | $30.80 | — | +2.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins asserting, quality bid returns |
| 4 months | Dec 8, 2026 | $31.40 | — | +3.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into EM quality names |
| 5 months | Jan 8, 2027 | $31.90 | — | +5.6% | 4/10 | Earnings anticipation, beat history supports drift |
| 6 months | Feb 8, 2027 | $32.60 | — | +7.9% | 4/10 | Gradual re-rate toward anchored-PE, momentum stays muted |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $131.27 (+334.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $30.21 |
| Composite fair value | $234.52 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $354.22 |
| DCF fair value | $332.89 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $37.78 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $26.00 |
| Value net score | +15 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +74 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 16.0% 3m 20.4% 6m 23.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.38 3m 0.33 5m 0.79 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | IBN-20260808-000712-dc4b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBN-20260808-004135-6303 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBN-20260808-004135-6303 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBN-20260808-004135-6303 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-IBN-20260808-004135-6303 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | IBN-20260808-000712-dc4b |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | IBN-20260808-000712-dc4b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.