Made on
Aug 9, 2026
Price at call
$488.14
6-month call
Bear -11.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$430.00
Great value below
$260.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.9% to $430.00
Predicted High
$483.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$430.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 9, 2026 12:53 am
Bear
SPOT trends lower to
$430.00
(-11.9% from $488.14)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSPOT trades at a huge premium to composite fair value ($208) with negative value and sentiment lenses, insider selling, and a post-earnings sell-the-news setup. Risk-on tape and quality cushion the near term, but value gravity and fading narrative pull the price lower over 6 months toward the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $520 on strong volume or a surprise upside pre-announcement would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $488.14 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 9, 2026 | — | $488.14 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 23, 2026 | $446.85–$529.43 typical range · internal point $483.00 | — | ±8.5% | 6/10 | Sell-the-news drift with risk-on tape cushioning |
| What actually happened: closed $533.72 on Aug 21, 2026 = +9.3% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 10.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.5%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 9, 2026 | $428.31–$547.97 typical range · internal point $475.00 | — | ±12.3% | 6/10 | Insider selling weighs, no catalyst to lift |
| 2 months | Oct 9, 2026 | $465.00 | — | -4.7% | 5/10 | Narrative stress-test continues, multiple compresses slowly |
| 3 months | Nov 9, 2026 | $455.00 | — | -6.8% | 6/10 | Pre-earnings positioning cautious given rich valuation |
| 4 months | Dec 9, 2026 | $445.00 | — | -8.8% | 5/10 | Value gravity dominates as momentum fades |
| 5 months | Jan 9, 2027 | $438.00 | — | -10.3% | 4/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline into new year |
| 6 months | Feb 9, 2027 | $430.00 | — | -11.9% | 4/10 | Converges near baseline; deep value gap unresolved |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $431.07 (-11.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $488.14 |
| Composite fair value | $208.21 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $228.18 |
| DCF fair value | $146.21 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $478.26 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $260.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +64 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.3% 3m 42.5% 6m 51.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.62 3m -0.22 5m 0.33 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 18.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | SPOT-20260809-000707-d5b0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPOT-20260809-004137-6d97 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPOT-20260809-004137-6d97 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPOT-20260809-004137-6d97 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-SPOT-20260809-004137-6d97 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | SPOT-20260809-000707-d5b0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | SPOT-20260809-000707-d5b0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $488.14 | $430.00 | -11.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 9, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.