Made on
Aug 9, 2026
Price at call
$392.05
6-month call
Neutral -3.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$380.00
Great value below
$320.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-3.1% to $380.00
Predicted High
$399.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$380.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 9, 2026 12:53 am
Neutral
GD trends range-bound to
$380.00
(-3.1% from $392.05)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisGD rides positive Q2 beat momentum and defense tailwinds in a risk-on tape near-term, but rich valuation vs composite fair value ($316) creates gravity that flattens the path by year-end. Low beta and steady compounder status limit downside; no near-term earnings catalyst until late fall.
Invalidated ifBreak below $370 on defense-budget headline risk, or sustained move above $410 on new major contract wins would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $392.05 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 9, 2026 | — | $392.05 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 23, 2026 | $374.16–$409.94 typical range · internal point $396.50 | — | ±4.6% | 7/10 | Post-beat momentum, risk-on tape, low-vol grind higher |
| What actually happened: closed $384.29 on Aug 21, 2026 = -2.0% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.1 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±4.6%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 9, 2026 | $366.13–$417.97 typical range · internal point $399.00 | — | ±6.6% | 6/10 | Backlog narrative and cyber win sustain bid |
| What actually happened: closed $356.58 on Sep 8, 2026 = -9.1% vs the call (predicted +1.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 9, 2026 | $395.00 | — | +0.8% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings drift, valuation gravity begins |
| 3 months | Nov 9, 2026 | $398.00 | — | +1.5% | 4/10 | Q3 print likely another beat, modest pop |
| 4 months | Dec 9, 2026 | $390.00 | — | -0.5% | 4/10 | Post-earnings fade, budget cycle uncertainty |
| 5 months | Jan 9, 2027 | $384.00 | — | -2.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward anchored-PE $415 ceiling capped |
| 6 months | Feb 9, 2027 | $380.00 | — | -3.1% | 4/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value, flat 6mo return |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $386.75 (-1.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $392.05 |
| Composite fair value | $316.09 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $318.75 |
| DCF fair value | $329.86 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $414.67 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $320.00 |
| Value net score | -63 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +64 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 18.0% 3m 22.9% 6m 24.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.18 3m 0.16 5m 0.24 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 11.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | GD-20260809-000707-7156 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-GD-20260809-004137-be74 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-GD-20260809-004137-be74 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-GD-20260809-004137-be74 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-GD-20260809-004137-be74 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | GD-20260809-000707-7156 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | GD-20260809-000707-7156 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.