Made on
Aug 9, 2026
Price at call
$869.58
6-month call
Bull +10.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$960.00
Great value below
$780.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+10.4% to $960.00
Predicted High
$960.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$878.00
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 9, 2026 12:54 am
Bull
MCK trends higher to
$960.00
(+10.4% from $869.58)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisMCK sits below composite fair value with a strong earnings beat streak, negative beta providing ballast, and a risk-on regime. Expect gradual mean-reversion higher toward the deterministic baseline, with early sentiment tailwind fading into value gravity by mid-window.
Invalidated ifA break below $780 on heavy volume or a guidance cut would falsify the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $869.58 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 9, 2026 | — | $869.58 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 23, 2026 | $817.62–$921.54 typical range · internal point $878.00 | — | ±6.0% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and post-beat drift lift shares modestly |
| What actually happened: closed $858.90 on Aug 21, 2026 = -1.2% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.2 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.0%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 9, 2026 | $794.28–$944.88 typical range · internal point $885.00 | — | ±8.7% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind continues, no catalyst to disrupt |
| 2 months | Oct 9, 2026 | $895.00 | — | +2.9% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward composite fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 9, 2026 | $915.00 | — | +5.2% | 5/10 | Next earnings print likely reinforces beat streak |
| 4 months | Dec 9, 2026 | $935.00 | — | +7.5% | 4/10 | Steady grind higher as discount narrows |
| 5 months | Jan 9, 2027 | $950.00 | — | +9.2% | 4/10 | Approaching deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 9, 2027 | $960.00 | — | +10.4% | 4/10 | Convergence toward baseline with some regime uncertainty |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $959.54 (+10.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $869.58 |
| Composite fair value | $1,083.67 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $1,251.76 |
| DCF fair value | $986.93 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $1,927.50 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $780.00 |
| Value net score | +20 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +47 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 37.0% 3m 30.0% 6m 28.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.97 3m -0.93 5m -0.48 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -9.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | MCK-20260809-000707-2aec |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCK-20260809-004137-5c45 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCK-20260809-004137-5c45 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCK-20260809-004137-5c45 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCK-20260809-004137-5c45 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | MCK-20260809-000707-2aec |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | MCK-20260809-000707-2aec |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.