Made on
Aug 11, 2026
Price at call
$314.95
6-month call
Bear -10.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$282.00
Great value below
$235.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.5% to $282.00
Predicted High
$322.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$282.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 11, 2026 1:20 am
Bear
VLO trends lower to
$282.00
(-10.5% from $314.95)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisVLO is stretched about 30% above composite fair value after a 55% six-month run, but a risk-on regime and hot refining tape keep momentum alive near-term. Expect the rally to hold or drift higher into fall before value gravity and cyclical fatigue pull it back toward the high 200s.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $340 on refining strength, or a collapse below $285 that breaches trend, would invalidate this mean-reversion path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $314.95 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 11, 2026 | — | $314.95 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 25, 2026 | $291.58–$338.32 typical range · internal point $318.50 | — | ±7.4% | 6/10 | Momentum and risk-on regime carry tape short-term |
| What actually happened: closed $346.00 on Aug 24, 2026 = +9.9% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 8.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.4%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 11, 2026 | $281.09–$348.81 typical range · internal point $322.00 | — | ±10.8% | 5/10 | Peer refining strength extends run into September |
| What actually happened: closed $385.43 on Sep 10, 2026 = +22.4% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 20.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 11, 2026 | $315.00 | — | +0.0% | 4/10 | Rally stalls as valuation stretch becomes visible |
| 3 months | Nov 11, 2026 | $305.00 | — | -3.2% | 4/10 | Q3 print risk and crack spread normalization weigh |
| 4 months | Dec 11, 2026 | $295.00 | — | -6.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls toward DCF anchor near 277 |
| 5 months | Jan 11, 2027 | $288.00 | — | -8.6% | 5/10 | Late-cycle refining narrative fades into new year |
| 6 months | Feb 11, 2027 | $282.00 | — | -10.5% | 6/10 | Convergence toward bear scenario and fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $306.57 (-2.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Value is primarily income-based — dividend sustainability is the key risk
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $314.95 |
| Composite fair value | $243.29 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $226.93 |
| DCF fair value | $276.99 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $235.00 |
| Value net score | -67 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +18 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.8% 3m 37.2% 6m 38.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.41 3m -0.49 5m -0.94 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 55.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | VLO-20260811-000713-c323 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-VLO-20260811-010850-e221 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-VLO-20260811-010850-e221 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-VLO-20260811-010850-e221 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-VLO-20260811-010850-e221 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | VLO-20260811-000713-c323 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | VLO-20260811-000713-c323 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $314.95 | $282.00 | -10.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $280.69 | $264.99 | -5.6% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.