Made on
Aug 11, 2026
Price at call
$808.05
6-month call
Bear -6.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$755.00
Great value below
$640.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.6% to $755.00
Predicted High
$810.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$755.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 11, 2026 1:33 am
Bear
REGN trends lower to
$755.00
(-6.6% from $808.05)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisREGN sits above composite fair value with a mild negative value lens and unresolved Eylea biosimilar overhang, but low beta and risk-on tape limit downside. Expect a slow drift toward the $735-760 deserved-value zone over the window, with modest chop rather than a sharp break.
Invalidated ifA decisive close above $860 on positive Eylea/pipeline catalyst, or below $720 on biosimilar share loss, would falsify this gradual mean-reversion path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $808.05 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 11, 2026 | — | $808.05 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 25, 2026 | $750.50–$865.60 typical range · internal point $810.00 | — | ±7.1% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift in calm risk-on tape near spot |
| 1 month | Sep 11, 2026 | $724.66–$891.44 typical range · internal point $802.00 | — | ±10.3% | 5/10 | Mild gravity toward fair value, no catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 11, 2026 | $790.00 | — | -2.2% | 5/10 | Value lens weighs, biosimilar narrative lingers |
| 3 months | Nov 11, 2026 | $778.00 | — | -3.7% | 4/10 | Q3 print risk, Eylea erosion data creeps in |
| 4 months | Dec 11, 2026 | $768.00 | — | -5.0% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward deserved value zone |
| 5 months | Jan 11, 2027 | $760.00 | — | -5.9% | 3/10 | Approaches DCF anchor, buyers emerge near $740 |
| 6 months | Feb 11, 2027 | $755.00 | — | -6.6% | 3/10 | Stabilizes near composite fair value band |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $794.96 (-1.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $808.05 |
| Composite fair value | $678.19 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $685.63 |
| DCF fair value | $699.59 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $863.34 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $640.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +35 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 31.5% 3m 35.7% 6m 32.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.73 3m 0.33 5m 0.56 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 2.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | REGN-20260811-004915-fc6b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-REGN-20260811-011937-6caf |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-REGN-20260811-011937-6caf |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-REGN-20260811-011937-6caf |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-REGN-20260811-011937-6caf |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | REGN-20260811-004915-fc6b |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | REGN-20260811-004915-fc6b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $808.05 | $755.00 | -6.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 17, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $678.94 | $679.73 | +0.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.