Made on
Aug 12, 2026
Price at call
$218.69
6-month call
Bear -8.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$201.00
Great value below
$150.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.1% to $201.00
Predicted High
$224.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$201.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 12, 2026 12:48 am
Bear
TEL trends lower to
$201.00
(-8.1% from $218.69)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTEL is materially above fair value but riding a durable AI/EV connectivity narrative in a risk-on tape with clean earnings history. Momentum likely carries it modestly higher near-term before value gravity and rate risk exert a slow drift lower over the 6-month window.
Invalidated ifRegime flip to risk-off or a break below $200 with expanding volume would invalidate the near-term ride; a sustained close above $235 breaks the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $218.69 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 12, 2026 | — | $218.69 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 26, 2026 | $203.94–$233.44 typical range · internal point $221.50 | — | ±6.7% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and AI narrative sustain drift higher |
| 1 month | Sep 12, 2026 | $197.31–$240.07 typical range · internal point $224.00 | — | ±9.8% | 5/10 | Momentum peaks as no catalyst dates approach |
| 2 months | Oct 12, 2026 | $220.00 | — | +0.6% | 5/10 | Narrative energy plateaus, first valuation pushback |
| 3 months | Nov 12, 2026 | $214.00 | — | -2.1% | 5/10 | Q4 print risk and rate-multiple tension weigh |
| 4 months | Dec 12, 2026 | $209.00 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims extended industrials |
| 5 months | Jan 12, 2027 | $205.00 | — | -6.3% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward $130s DCF pulls slowly |
| 6 months | Feb 12, 2027 | $201.00 | — | -8.1% | 4/10 | Baseline convergence as narrative premium compresses |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $203.85 (-6.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
-
Note
earningsQuality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $218.69 |
| Composite fair value | $113.65 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $128.82 |
| DCF fair value | $134.98 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $150.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +56 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.1% 3m 33.9% 6m 39.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.16 3m 1.45 5m 1.47 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -3.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | TEL-20260812-001042-4ad2 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-TEL-20260812-003825-6745 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-TEL-20260812-003825-6745 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-TEL-20260812-003825-6745 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-TEL-20260812-003825-6745 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | TEL-20260812-001042-4ad2 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | TEL-20260812-001042-4ad2 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $218.69 | $201.00 | -8.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 19, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $203.31 | $201.45 | -0.9% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.