Made on
Aug 12, 2026
Price at call
$35.37
6-month call
Bull +5.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$37.20
Great value below
$29.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+5.2% to $37.20
Predicted High
$37.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$35.45
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 12, 2026 12:54 am
Bull
RELX trends higher to
$37.20
(+5.2% from $35.37)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisRELX is a high-quality compounder trading near composite fair value with strong momentum but stretched vs value lens. Low beta and no near-term catalyst suggest a drifting path modestly upward toward the anchored-PE and DCF zone, with occasional consolidation given the risk-on tape favoring higher-beta names.
Invalidated ifA break below $32 on volume or a regime shift to risk-off with RELX failing to outperform would invalidate the mild uptrend thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $35.37 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 12, 2026 | — | $35.37 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 26, 2026 | $32.78–$37.96 typical range · internal point $35.45 | — | ±7.3% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, no catalyst, risk-on tape neutral |
| What actually happened: closed $35.88 on Aug 25, 2026 = +1.4% vs the call (predicted +0.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.2 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.3%: inside the band · S&P -0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 12, 2026 | $31.62–$39.12 typical range · internal point $35.60 | — | ±10.6% | 6/10 | Quiet compounder holds near fair value |
| 2 months | Oct 12, 2026 | $35.90 | — | +1.5% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings anticipation builds mild bid |
| 3 months | Nov 12, 2026 | $36.40 | — | +2.9% | 5/10 | Earnings beat streak likely extends, modest lift |
| 4 months | Dec 12, 2026 | $36.70 | — | +3.8% | 4/10 | Year-end quality rotation supports defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 12, 2027 | $36.90 | — | +4.3% | 4/10 | January drift toward DCF anchor zone |
| 6 months | Feb 12, 2027 | $37.20 | — | +5.2% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward anchored-PE midpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $36.26 (+2.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $35.37 |
| Composite fair value | $33.00 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $34.86 |
| DCF fair value | $35.11 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $41.55 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $29.00 |
| Value net score | -36 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +88 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 41.6% 3m 36.8% 6m 35.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.55 3m -0.45 5m 0.06 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 20.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | RELX-20260812-001022-1677 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-RELX-20260812-003555-9fc3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-RELX-20260812-003555-9fc3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-RELX-20260812-003555-9fc3 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-RELX-20260812-003555-9fc3 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | RELX-20260812-001022-1677 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | RELX-20260812-001022-1677 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $35.37 | $37.20 | +5.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 19, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $33.70 | $34.41 | +2.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.