Made on
Aug 12, 2026
Price at call
$1,301.94
6-month call
Neutral -4.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$1,245.00
Great value below
$950.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.4% to $1,245.00
Predicted High
$1,318.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$1,245.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 12, 2026 1:00 am
Neutral
GWW trends range-bound to
$1,245.00
(-4.4% from $1,301.94)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisGWW is a durable quality compounder trading well above fair value, but risk-on tape, guide-up momentum, and low beta keep near-term drift positive before valuation gravity slowly reasserts. Expect a modest ride-then-fade, not a crash - the stock rarely gaps down absent a catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break above 1360 on volume with sustained risk-on, or a break below 1240 signaling narrative crack, would falsify the gentle fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $1,301.94 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 12, 2026 | — | $1,301.94 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 26, 2026 | $1,242.73–$1,361.15 typical range · internal point $1,312.00 | — | ±4.5% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and guide-up momentum carry near-term |
| 1 month | Sep 12, 2026 | $1,216.14–$1,387.74 typical range · internal point $1,318.00 | — | ±6.6% | 6/10 | Quality-compounder bid persists, no catalyst to break |
| 2 months | Oct 12, 2026 | $1,305.00 | — | +0.2% | 5/10 | Momentum stalls as valuation stretch gets noticed |
| 3 months | Nov 12, 2026 | $1,288.00 | — | -1.1% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings drift lower on rich multiple |
| 4 months | Dec 12, 2026 | $1,272.00 | — | -2.3% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on outperformers |
| 5 months | Jan 12, 2027 | $1,260.00 | — | -3.2% | 4/10 | January rotation away from expensive quality |
| 6 months | Feb 12, 2027 | $1,245.00 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity slowly pulls toward fair-value anchors |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $1,178.59 (-9.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $1,301.94 |
| Composite fair value | $740.15 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $759.40 |
| DCF fair value | $426.79 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $1,701.48 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $950.00 |
| Value net score | -75 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +63 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 26.4% 3m 22.8% 6m 25.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.47 3m 0.11 5m 0.39 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 9.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | GWW-20260812-001222-d8ab |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-GWW-20260812-003440-0a3f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-GWW-20260812-003440-0a3f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-GWW-20260812-003440-0a3f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-GWW-20260812-003440-0a3f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | GWW-20260812-001222-d8ab |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | GWW-20260812-001222-d8ab |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $1,301.94 | $1,245.00 | -4.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 17, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $1,402.03 | $1,254.97 | -10.5% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.