Made on
Aug 12, 2026
Price at call
$96.80
6-month call
Neutral +1.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$97.80
Great value below
$82.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+1.0% to $97.80
Predicted High
$97.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$93.50
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 12, 2026 1:03 am
Neutral
MET trends range-bound to
$97.80
(+1.0% from $96.80)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisMET is slightly above composite fair value with a modest sentiment tailwind and a calm risk-on tape, but stretched 6m returns and no near-term catalyst suggest mean-reversion toward the low-90s before value gravity and steady compounding pull it back near baseline by month 6.
Invalidated ifBreak above $102 on rate-curve steepening or below $88 on regime flip to risk-off would falsify
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $96.80 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 12, 2026 | — | $96.80 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 26, 2026 | $92.31–$101.29 typical range · internal point $96.20 | — | ±4.6% | 6/10 | Momentum cools, no catalyst, mild drift lower |
| 1 month | Sep 12, 2026 | $90.30–$103.30 typical range · internal point $94.80 | — | ±6.7% | 6/10 | Value gravity toward $91 fair value pulls in |
| 2 months | Oct 12, 2026 | $93.50 | — | -3.4% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, rate-curve headwind weighs |
| 3 months | Nov 12, 2026 | $94.90 | — | -2.0% | 5/10 | Q3 beat likely given 4/4 streak, modest bounce |
| 4 months | Dec 12, 2026 | $96.20 | — | -0.6% | 4/10 | Year-end risk-on tape supports insurers |
| 5 months | Jan 12, 2027 | $97.30 | — | +0.5% | 4/10 | January inflows to quality compounders |
| 6 months | Feb 12, 2027 | $97.80 | — | +1.0% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $97.69 (+0.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $96.80 |
| Composite fair value | $91.57 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $90.84 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $91.57 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $82.00 |
| Value net score | -36 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +55 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 21.0% 3m 23.3% 6m 24.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.12 3m -0.08 5m 0.46 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 27.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | MET-20260812-001142-38a0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-MET-20260812-003339-d616 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-MET-20260812-003339-d616 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-MET-20260812-003339-d616 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-MET-20260812-003339-d616 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | MET-20260812-001142-38a0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | MET-20260812-001142-38a0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $96.80 | $97.80 | +1.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 19, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.