Made on
Aug 14, 2026
Price at call
$45.11
6-month call
Neutral +0.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$45.20
Great value below
$38.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+0.2% to $45.20
Predicted High
$46.80
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$45.00
at 5 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 14, 2026 12:39 am
Neutral
BN trends range-bound to
$45.20
(+0.2% from $45.11)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisBN sits slightly below composite fair value ($48.46) with a risk-on tape offering modest lift, but negative quality/value lenses and private-credit overhang cap upside. Expect a mild drift higher into the November earnings print, some post-print volatility given prior misses concern, then gradual mean-reversion toward the mid-40s fair-value zone.
Invalidated ifA break below $40 on private-credit stress or a Q3 EPS miss would falsify; conversely a decisive move above $50 on clean earnings invalidates the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $45.11 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 14, 2026 | — | $45.11 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 28, 2026 | $42.81–$47.41 typical range · internal point $45.60 | — | ±5.1% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime provides modest near-term lift |
| 1 month | Sep 14, 2026 | $41.77–$48.45 typical range · internal point $46.20 | — | ±7.4% | 6/10 | Steady-compounder narrative drifts price toward fair value |
| 2 months | Oct 14, 2026 | $46.80 | — | +3.7% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, valuation gap narrows |
| 3 months | Nov 14, 2026 | $46.00 | — | +2.0% | 4/10 | November earnings volatility, mixed reaction likely |
| 4 months | Dec 14, 2026 | $45.40 | — | +0.6% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion, private-credit worries resurface |
| 5 months | Jan 14, 2027 | $45.00 | — | -0.2% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward deserved value zone |
| 6 months | Feb 14, 2027 | $45.20 | — | +0.2% | 5/10 | Settles near composite fair value baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $45.04 (-0.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 7 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Anchored PE skipped — peer comparison unreliable for distressed companies
-
Note
Check balance sheet assets carefully — book value may overstate real liquidation value
-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
-
Note
earningsQuality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $45.11 |
| Composite fair value | $48.46 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $47.05 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $38.00 |
| Value net score | -29 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -39 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 21.0% 3m 25.6% 6m 28.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.10 3m 1.05 5m 1.23 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -3.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 9, 2026 | 5d behind | BN-20260809-002335-b18a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-BN-20260814-002836-6da1 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-BN-20260814-002836-6da1 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-BN-20260814-002836-6da1 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-BN-20260814-002836-6da1 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | BN-20260814-001144-0481 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | BN-20260814-001144-0481 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $45.11 | $45.20 | +0.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 9, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.