Made on
Aug 14, 2026
Price at call
$29.48
6-month call
Bull +9.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$32.30
Great value below
$26.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+9.6% to $32.30
Predicted High
$32.30
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$29.15
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 14, 2026 3:25 am
Bull
IBN trends higher to
$32.30
(+9.6% from $29.48)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisIBN trades far below quality-driven fair value anchors but low beta and inert sentiment mean convergence is slow; expect a modest grind higher toward the prior prediction's $32-33 zone, not the extreme DCF endpoint.
Invalidated ifA close below $26.50 sustained for two weeks, or a break of the risk-on regime, would falsify the gradual recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $29.48 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 14, 2026 | — | $29.48 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 28, 2026 | $28.30–$30.66 typical range · internal point $29.35 | — | ±4.0% | 6/10 | Low-vol drift, no catalyst, mild sentiment inertia |
| 1 month | Sep 14, 2026 | $27.77–$31.19 typical range · internal point $29.15 | — | ±5.8% | 5/10 | Slight dip on trailing weakness, value zone approached |
| 2 months | Oct 14, 2026 | $29.80 | — | +1.1% | 5/10 | Value buyers absorb near attractive threshold |
| 3 months | Nov 14, 2026 | $30.40 | — | +3.1% | 5/10 | Quality re-rating begins, regime supportive |
| 4 months | Dec 14, 2026 | $31.10 | — | +5.5% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors high-quality EM banks |
| 5 months | Jan 14, 2027 | $31.70 | — | +7.5% | 4/10 | Earnings expectation build, gradual multiple lift |
| 6 months | Feb 14, 2027 | $32.30 | — | +9.6% | 4/10 | Convergence toward prior model endpoint, low beta caps upside |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $128.88 (+337.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $29.48 |
| Composite fair value | $220.78 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $253.98 |
| DCF fair value | $312.12 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $38.09 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $26.50 |
| Value net score | +10 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +80 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 15.7% 3m 20.1% 6m 23.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.43 3m 0.35 5m 0.77 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -5.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | 6d behind | IBN-20260808-000712-dc4b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-IBN-20260812-132735-3ea7 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-IBN-20260812-132735-3ea7 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-IBN-20260812-132735-3ea7 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-IBN-20260812-132735-3ea7 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | IBN-20260808-000712-dc4b |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | IBN-20260808-000712-dc4b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.