Made on
Aug 14, 2026
Price at call
$55.50
6-month call
Bull +26.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$70.00
Great value below
$60.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+26.1% to $70.00
Predicted High
$70.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$52.80
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 14, 2026 3:25 am
Bull
FISV trends higher to
$70.00
(+26.1% from $55.50)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisFISV trades at a deep discount to fair value with quality intact, but a hardening fallen-angel narrative and guidance-cut chatter will keep pressure on shares near-term. Absent an earnings catalyst on the calendar, sentiment likely bleeds further before value buyers and a risk-on tape enable a partial mean-reversion into early 2027.
Invalidated ifA break below $48 on further guidance cuts or unit divestiture confirmation, or conversely a decisive reclaim of $65 that voids the fallen-angel narrative.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $55.50 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 14, 2026 | — | $55.50 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 28, 2026 | $50.49–$60.51 typical range · internal point $54.20 | — | ±9.0% | 7/10 | Sentiment overhang and negative beta keep drift lower |
| What actually happened: closed $52.58 on Aug 27, 2026 = -5.3% vs the call (predicted -2.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 2.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 14, 2026 | $48.24–$62.76 typical range · internal point $52.80 | — | ±13.1% | 6/10 | Fallen-angel narrative peaks, value buyers begin nibbling |
| What actually happened: closed $51.58 on Sep 11, 2026 = -7.1% vs the call (predicted -4.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 2.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.1%: inside the band · S&P -1.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 14, 2026 | $53.50 | — | -3.6% | 5/10 | Basing near $60 attractive zone, no catalyst yet |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 3 months | Nov 14, 2026 | $57.00 | — | +2.7% | 5/10 | Q3 print reminds market of earnings beat streak |
| 4 months | Dec 14, 2026 | $61.50 | — | +10.8% | 5/10 | Value gravity engages as regime remains risk-on |
| 5 months | Jan 14, 2027 | $66.00 | — | +18.9% | 4/10 | Multiple recovery toward anchored-PE fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 14, 2027 | $70.00 | — | +26.1% | 4/10 | Partial convergence toward composite fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $76.16 (+37.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $55.50 |
| Composite fair value | $97.18 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $95.25 |
| DCF fair value | $101.92 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $100.90 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $60.00 |
| Value net score | +56 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +60 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 41.2% 3m 45.3% 6m 42.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.12 3m -0.31 5m 0.12 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -10.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 11d behind | FISV-20260802-132328-2218 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-FISV-20260812-132619-3890 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-FISV-20260812-132619-3890 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-FISV-20260812-132619-3890 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-FISV-20260812-132619-3890 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | FISV-20260813-001311-cd00 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | FISV-20260813-001311-cd00 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.