Made on
Aug 14, 2026
Price at call
$124.52
6-month call
Bull +18.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$148.00
Great value below
$110.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+18.9% to $148.00
Predicted High
$148.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$126.80
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 14, 2026 3:26 am
Bull
COP trends higher to
$148.00
(+18.9% from $124.52)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCOP trades below composite fair value with mild sentiment tailwind, risk-on regime, and recent earnings beat. Expect gradual mean-reversion toward the $150s over six months, with early momentum from regime and no near-term catalyst risk, then value gravity pulling closer to the signal-adjusted anchor.
Invalidated ifRegime flip to risk-off, crude breakdown below $60, or COP closing below $110 for multiple sessions would invalidate the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $124.52 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 14, 2026 | — | $124.52 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 28, 2026 | $116.72–$132.32 typical range · internal point $126.80 | — | ±6.3% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and post-beat drift continue near term |
| 1 month | Sep 14, 2026 | $113.22–$135.82 typical range · internal point $128.50 | — | ±9.1% | 6/10 | Momentum carries into mid-September without catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 14, 2026 | $131.00 | — | +5.2% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings anticipation, gradual value discovery |
| 3 months | Nov 14, 2026 | $135.50 | — | +8.8% | 5/10 | Earnings print likely reinforces beat pattern |
| 4 months | Dec 14, 2026 | $140.00 | — | +12.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, value gap narrows toward anchor |
| 5 months | Jan 14, 2027 | $144.00 | — | +15.6% | 4/10 | January flows favor undervalued quality energy names |
| 6 months | Feb 14, 2027 | $148.00 | — | +18.9% | 3/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $148.83 (+19.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $124.52 |
| Composite fair value | $171.61 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $154.27 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $113.65 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $110.00 |
| Value net score | +6 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +62 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.6% 3m 31.4% 6m 31.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.04 3m -1.00 5m -1.12 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 12.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 6, 2026 | 8d behind | COP-20260806-000518-d183 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-COP-20260812-131901-f8b0 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-COP-20260812-131901-f8b0 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-COP-20260812-131901-f8b0 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-COP-20260812-131901-f8b0 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | COP-20260806-000518-d183 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | COP-20260806-000518-d183 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.