Made on
Aug 15, 2026
Price at call
$275.79
6-month call
Bear -13.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$240.00
Great value below
$170.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-13.0% to $240.00
Predicted High
$277.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$240.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-13.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 15, 2026 12:41 am
Bear
TRGP trends lower to
$240.00
(-13.0% from $275.79)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTRGP trades far above every fair-value anchor but momentum, risk-on tape, and consistent earnings beats keep it elevated near-term; gravity toward the deterministic baseline builds slowly over the 6-month window without a catalyst forcing a sharp break.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $295 on Permian volume upside or below $240 on a regime flip would invalidate the slow-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $275.79 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 15, 2026 | — | $275.79 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 29, 2026 | $258.93–$292.65 typical range · internal point $277.50 | — | ±6.1% | 6/10 | Risk-on momentum and low realized vol persist short-term |
| 1 month | Sep 15, 2026 | $251.36–$300.22 typical range · internal point $274.00 | — | ±8.9% | 5/10 | Drift sideways as no catalyst; sentiment cap holds |
| 2 months | Oct 15, 2026 | $268.00 | — | -2.8% | 4/10 | Valuation gravity begins; profit-taking on extended name |
| 3 months | Nov 15, 2026 | $260.00 | — | -5.7% | 4/10 | Q3 print risk and mean-reversion pressure build |
| 4 months | Dec 15, 2026 | $252.00 | — | -8.6% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation away from richly-valued midstream |
| 5 months | Jan 15, 2027 | $245.00 | — | -11.2% | 3/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline continues |
| 6 months | Feb 15, 2027 | $240.00 | — | -13.0% | 3/10 | Settles near baseline; deep DCF gap unresolved but sticky |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $237.52 (-13.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 3 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
-
Note
earningsQuality
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $275.79 |
| Composite fair value | $95.70 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $90.76 |
| DCF fair value | $49.88 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $155.63 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $170.00 |
| Value net score | -82 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +20 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 34.6% 3m 30.7% 6m 28.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.66 3m -0.73 5m -0.52 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 26.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | TRGP-20260815-001444-fc09 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-TRGP-20260815-003152-db0b |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-TRGP-20260815-003152-db0b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-TRGP-20260815-003152-db0b |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-TRGP-20260815-003152-db0b |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | TRGP-20260815-001444-fc09 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | TRGP-20260815-001444-fc09 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $275.79 | $240.00 | -13.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 19, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $282.91 | $243.82 | -13.8% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.