Made on
Aug 16, 2026
Price at call
$374.67
6-month call
Bear -6.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$352.00
Great value below
$230.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.1% to $352.00
Predicted High
$381.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$352.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 16, 2026 12:36 am
Bear
HEI trends lower to
$352.00
(-6.1% from $374.67)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisHEI trades far above every fair-value anchor but the platform-monopoly narrative, quality profile, and risk-on tape keep the bid firm with no earnings catalyst in the window. Momentum likely persists near-term before valuation gravity begins a modest drift lower, though nothing here forces a sharp derating absent a regime change.
Invalidated ifA break below $340 on rising volume or a regime flip to risk-off would confirm valuation gravity taking hold faster than modeled.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $374.67 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 16, 2026 | — | $374.67 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 30, 2026 | $349.32–$400.02 typical range · internal point $378.50 | — | ±6.8% | 7/10 | momentum and risk-on tape carry price higher short-term |
| What actually happened: closed $336.53 on Aug 28, 2026 = -10.2% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 11.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 16, 2026 | $337.93–$411.41 typical range · internal point $381.00 | — | ±9.8% | 6/10 | platform narrative intact, no catalyst to break trend |
| What actually happened: closed $296.85 on Sep 15, 2026 = -20.8% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 22.5 pp · accuracy 3/10 · typical range ±9.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -2.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 16, 2026 | $376.00 | — | +0.4% | 5/10 | valuation gap begins to weigh, mild consolidation |
| 3 months | Nov 16, 2026 | $370.00 | — | -1.2% | 5/10 | quality bid persists but rich multiple caps upside |
| 4 months | Dec 16, 2026 | $365.00 | — | -2.6% | 4/10 | year-end positioning, profit-taking on winners |
| 5 months | Jan 16, 2027 | $358.00 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | January reset, DCF gap increasingly discussed |
| 6 months | Feb 16, 2027 | $352.00 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | gradual drift toward anchored-PE fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $331.57 (-11.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 3 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
-
Note
earningsQuality
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $374.67 |
| Composite fair value | $139.31 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $178.07 |
| DCF fair value | $118.10 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $272.34 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $230.00 |
| Value net score | -76 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +80 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 20.5% 3m 34.0% 6m 38.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.50 3m 0.96 5m 1.20 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 14.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | HEI-20260816-001129-23a4 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-HEI-20260816-002601-cee8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-HEI-20260816-002601-cee8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-HEI-20260816-002601-cee8 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-HEI-20260816-002601-cee8 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | HEI-20260816-001129-23a4 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | HEI-20260816-001129-23a4 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $374.67 | $352.00 | -6.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $340.40 | $312.00 | -8.3% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.