Made on
Aug 17, 2026
Price at call
$107.84
6-month call
Bear -10.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$97.00
Great value below
$85.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.1% to $97.00
Predicted High
$109.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$97.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 17, 2026 12:48 am
Bear
ETR trends lower to
$97.00
(-10.1% from $107.84)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisETR trades well above composite fair value ($78) but the AI/data-center narrative and defensive low-beta profile support sticky premium in a risk-on regime. Expect near-term drift higher on sentiment, then gradual mean-reversion as value gravity asserts over months, landing modestly below current but above deep fair value.
Invalidated ifBreak above $115 on sustained data-center capex news, or break below $98 on rate shock or Louisiana project setback.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $107.84 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 17, 2026 | — | $107.84 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 31, 2026 | $103.21–$112.47 typical range · internal point $108.60 | — | ±4.3% | 7/10 | Momentum and AI-power narrative carry near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $105.75 on Aug 28, 2026 = -1.9% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.6 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±4.3%: inside the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 17, 2026 | $101.13–$114.55 typical range · internal point $109.50 | — | ±6.2% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime supports defensive premium briefly |
| What actually happened: closed $102.32 on Sep 16, 2026 = -5.1% vs the call (predicted +1.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.2%: inside the band · S&P -2.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 17, 2026 | $107.00 | — | -0.8% | 5/10 | Narrative cools, no earnings catalyst nearby |
| 3 months | Nov 17, 2026 | $104.50 | — | -3.1% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk and valuation gravity begin biting |
| 4 months | Dec 17, 2026 | $101.80 | — | -5.6% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing away from premium utilities |
| 5 months | Jan 17, 2027 | $99.50 | — | -7.7% | 4/10 | Mean reversion toward anchored PE fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 17, 2027 | $97.00 | — | -10.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity dominates as AI premium normalizes |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $95.15 (-11.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 3 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $107.84 |
| Composite fair value | $78.48 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $77.54 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $78.48 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $85.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -32 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 22.1% 3m 21.6% 6m 23.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.56 3m 0.04 5m 0.02 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 5.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ETR-20260817-002037-a09b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ETR-20260817-003923-647d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ETR-20260817-003923-647d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ETR-20260817-003923-647d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ETR-20260817-003923-647d |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ETR-20260817-002037-a09b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $107.84 | $97.00 | -10.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 21, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.