Made on
Aug 17, 2026
Price at call
$134.21
6-month call
Bear -7.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$124.00
Great value below
$110.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.6% to $124.00
Predicted High
$141.50
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$124.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 17, 2026 12:53 am
Bear
WPM trends lower to
$124.00
(-7.6% from $134.21)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisGold tailwind and miners' catch-up trade support WPM near-term momentum, but rich valuation (fair value $114, attractive below $110) creates gravity over months. Expect a modest ride higher into fall on sentiment, then partial mean-reversion as the composite anchor reasserts.
Invalidated ifGold breaking below $4,100 or WPM closing under $120 would invalidate the near-term ride; a sustained close above $150 would invalidate the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $134.21 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 17, 2026 | — | $134.21 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 31, 2026 | $120.65–$147.77 typical range · internal point $136.50 | — | ±10.1% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and gold momentum extend recent bid |
| What actually happened: closed $153.33 on Aug 28, 2026 = +14.3% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 12.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 17, 2026 | $114.57–$153.85 typical range · internal point $139.00 | — | ±14.6% | 6/10 | Miners catch-up trade continues, no earnings catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $146.73 on Sep 16, 2026 = +9.3% vs the call (predicted +3.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 5.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±14.6%: inside the band · S&P -2.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 17, 2026 | $141.50 | — | +5.4% | 5/10 | Anchored-PE ceiling approached as sentiment peaks |
| 3 months | Nov 17, 2026 | $138.00 | — | +2.8% | 5/10 | Q3 print digestion, valuation gravity begins |
| 4 months | Dec 17, 2026 | $133.00 | — | -0.9% | 5/10 | Signal-adjusted fair value pulls price toward mean |
| 5 months | Jan 17, 2027 | $128.00 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation, composite anchor gains weight |
| 6 months | Feb 17, 2027 | $124.00 | — | -7.6% | 4/10 | Drift toward composite fair value $114 zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $133.77 (-0.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 5 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
-
Note
earningsQuality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $134.21 |
| Composite fair value | $113.85 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $132.75 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $141.05 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $110.00 |
| Value net score | -44 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +79 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.9% 3m 50.7% 6m 51.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.08 3m 2.32 5m 2.23 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -3.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 12, 2026 | 5d behind | WPM-20260812-001242-1420 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-WPM-20260817-004101-cdbc |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-WPM-20260817-004101-cdbc |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-WPM-20260817-004101-cdbc |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-WPM-20260817-004101-cdbc |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | WPM-20260817-001957-08e0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | WPM-20260817-001957-08e0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $134.21 | $124.00 | -7.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $109.96 | $100.00 | -9.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.