Made on
Aug 17, 2026
Price at call
$79.17
6-month call
Neutral -4.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$75.50
Great value below
$62.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.6% to $75.50
Predicted High
$79.70
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$75.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 17, 2026 12:54 am
Neutral
XEL trends range-bound to
$75.50
(-4.6% from $79.17)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisXEL trades well above composite fair value ($60.62) and anchored PE ($68.35), but a risk-on tape, low beta, and clean-energy narrative keep near-term drift mildly positive before valuation gravity reasserts. Expect a slow fade toward the mid-70s over 6 months, shy of deep fair value convergence given utility defensive bid.
Invalidated ifA sustained break above $82 on rate-cut acceleration, or a break below $74 on regulatory or rate shock, would invalidate the gradual fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $79.17 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 17, 2026 | — | $79.17 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 31, 2026 | $75.96–$82.38 typical range · internal point $79.45 | — | ±4.1% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and low beta support near-term drift |
| 1 month | Sep 17, 2026 | $74.51–$83.83 typical range · internal point $79.70 | — | ±5.9% | 6/10 | Clean-energy narrative persists, no earnings catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 17, 2026 | $78.90 | — | -0.3% | 5/10 | Valuation stretch begins to weigh on flows |
| 3 months | Nov 17, 2026 | $77.80 | — | -1.7% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk and rate repricing pressure |
| 4 months | Dec 17, 2026 | $76.90 | — | -2.9% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims rich defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 17, 2027 | $76.20 | — | -3.8% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward anchored PE $68 zone |
| 6 months | Feb 17, 2027 | $75.50 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Gradual mean reversion with defensive floor holding |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $72.10 (-8.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 4 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Degraded
[critical] Revenue is volatile and unreliable — growth projections are speculative
-
Note
liquidity
-
Note
dilution
-
Note
earningsQuality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $79.17 |
| Composite fair value | $60.62 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $54.92 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $68.35 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $62.00 |
| Value net score | -71 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -5 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 16.1% 3m 20.4% 6m 20.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.21 3m -0.13 5m 0.06 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 0.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | XEL-20260817-002157-c0a6 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-XEL-20260817-004002-f6ae |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-XEL-20260817-004002-f6ae |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-XEL-20260817-004002-f6ae |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-XEL-20260817-004002-f6ae |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | XEL-20260817-002157-c0a6 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $79.17 | $75.50 | -4.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $78.72 | $72.30 | -8.2% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.