Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$130.00
6-month call
Bear -11.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$115.00
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.5% to $115.00
Predicted High
$135.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$115.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 12:49 am
Bear
FLEX trends lower to
$115.00
(-11.5% from $130.00)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFLEX is trading massively above every fair-value anchor ($130 vs composite $54.66, DCF $32) on an AI/EV momentum narrative in a risk-on tape. Near-term momentum and high beta likely extend the ride modestly, but value gravity plus regime fragility should pull it toward the deterministic baseline over 4-6 months as the narrative cools.
Invalidated ifA sustained close above $145 on continued AI/EV order wins, or a regime flip to risk-off driving a break below $110 early, would invalidate the drift path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $130.00 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $130.00 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $111.49–$148.51 typical range · internal point $133.50 | — | ±14.2% | 6/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape carry high-beta name higher |
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $103.18–$156.82 typical range · internal point $135.00 | — | ±20.6% | 5/10 | Narrative intact, no earnings catalyst, buyers persist |
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $131.00 | — | +0.8% | 5/10 | Early fade as stretched valuation draws profit-taking |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $126.00 | — | -3.1% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins, sentiment confidence erodes |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $122.00 | — | -6.2% | 4/10 | Year-end de-risking hits high-beta AI-adjacent names |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $118.00 | — | -9.2% | 4/10 | Convergence toward anchored-PE and baseline continues |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $115.00 | — | -11.5% | 4/10 | Aligns with deterministic baseline as premium compresses |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $115.52 (-11.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $130.00 |
| Composite fair value | $54.66 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $57.74 |
| DCF fair value | $32.05 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $128.88 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | -68 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +60 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 66.6% 3m 71.5% 6m 78.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.46 3m 3.01 5m 3.28 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 102.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | FLEX-20260818-002126-7de4 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-FLEX-20260818-003648-79ae |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-FLEX-20260818-003648-79ae |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-FLEX-20260818-003648-79ae |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-FLEX-20260818-003648-79ae |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | FLEX-20260818-002126-7de4 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | FLEX-20260818-002126-7de4 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $130.00 | $115.00 | -11.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 14, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.