Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$100.94
6-month call
Bear -13.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$87.00
Great value below
$82.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-13.8% to $87.00
Predicted High
$99.80
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$87.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-13.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 1:32 am
Bear
EBAY trends lower to
$87.00
(-13.8% from $100.94)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesiseBay trades well above composite fair value ($84) with negative sentiment, a fresh downgrade, and a collapsed takeover premium weighing on the tape. Momentum has already begun to fade (recent w2 was -3% vs prior forecast), and over 6 months value gravity should pull the stock toward the mid-80s, though a risk-on regime and consistent EPS beats cushion the descent.
Invalidated ifA close above $110 on renewed M&A chatter, or a Q3 beat-and-raise that revives the compounder narrative, would invalidate the drift lower.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $100.94 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $100.94 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $94.44–$107.44 typical range · internal point $99.80 | — | ±6.4% | 6/10 | Post-downgrade drift continues in thin late-summer tape |
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $91.52–$110.36 typical range · internal point $98.20 | — | ±9.3% | 6/10 | Sentiment overhang persists; no catalyst to reverse |
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $95.50 | — | -5.4% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings de-risking as takeover premium unwinds |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $93.00 | — | -7.9% | 5/10 | Q3 print in-line but guide fails to excite |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $90.50 | — | -10.3% | 4/10 | Year-end tax selling on outsized 6mo gains |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $88.00 | — | -12.8% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value $84 |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $87.00 | — | -13.8% | 3/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted anchor near $86 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $96.23 (-4.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $100.94 |
| Composite fair value | $84.00 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $85.64 |
| DCF fair value | $56.74 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $187.21 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $82.00 |
| Value net score | -67 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +36 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 39.1% 3m 32.3% 6m 33.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.03 3m 0.25 5m 0.50 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 22.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | EBAY-20260818-002226-7ae0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-EBAY-20260818-004114-630f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-EBAY-20260818-004114-630f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-EBAY-20260818-004114-630f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | ext-EBAY-20260818-004114-630f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | EBAY-20260818-002226-7ae0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | EBAY-20260818-002226-7ae0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $100.94 | $87.00 | -13.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $113.05 | $102.00 | -9.8% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.