Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$430.97
6-month call
Neutral +0.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$435.00
Great value below
$320.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+0.9% to $435.00
Predicted High
$455.00
at 3 months
Predicted Low
$435.00
at 6 months
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 3:07 am
Neutral
TSM trends range-bound to
$435.00
(+0.9% from $430.97)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTSM rides the AI monopoly narrative and risk-on tape near-term, with momentum and 5-of-5 beat cadence dominating over the 6-month window. Deterministic value gravity toward $357 is real but slow-acting against a 2.5-beta, sentiment-70 name; expect drift higher with a mid-window consolidation rather than mean-reversion collapse.
Invalidated ifRegime flip to risk-off, break below $400 support, or AI-capex guide-down from major hyperscaler would falsify.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $430.97 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $430.97 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $389.85–$472.09 typical range · internal point $438.50 | — | ±9.5% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on regime carry price higher |
| What actually happened: closed $414.00 on Sep 1, 2026 = -3.9% vs the call (predicted +1.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.7 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±9.5%: inside the band · S&P -0.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $371.39–$490.55 typical range · internal point $445.00 | — | ±13.8% | 6/10 | Smart-money rotation and AI narrative persist |
| What actually happened: closed $430.26 on Sep 17, 2026 = -0.2% vs the call (predicted +3.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.4 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±13.8%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $452.00 | — | +4.9% | 5/10 | Pre-Q4-print positioning, sentiment still constructive |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $455.00 | — | +5.6% | 4/10 | Q3 earnings beat likely but valuation stretched |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $448.00 | — | +4.0% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking begins on high-beta names |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $440.00 | — | +2.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity and regime uncertainty weigh gently |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $435.00 | — | +0.9% | 3/10 | Mean reversion toward baseline slowly asserting |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $356.97 (-17.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $430.97 |
| Composite fair value | $33.75 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $34.11 |
| DCF fair value | $17.91 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $64.66 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $320.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +78 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 40.2% 3m 47.9% 6m 45.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.81 3m 2.51 5m 2.29 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 18.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | 19d behind | TSM-20260729-000735-c1ab |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260817-124732-f693 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260817-124732-f693 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260817-124732-f693 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-TSM-20260817-124732-f693 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | TSM-20260729-000735-c1ab |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | TSM-20260729-000735-c1ab |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.