CTSH
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Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. Class A Common Stock
Technology · Information Technology Services
Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$56.61
6-month call
Bull +12.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$63.80
Great value below
$52.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+12.7% to $63.80
Predicted High
$63.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$56.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 3:09 am
Bull
CTSH trends higher to
$63.80
(+12.7% from $56.61)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCTSH trades at a meaningful discount to composite fair value ($69.93) with weak sentiment and negative beta acting as headwinds near-term. In a risk-on tape, expect gradual mean-reversion toward the mid-$60s over 6 months, with value gravity dominating as the stale AI-disruption narrative fades.
Invalidated ifBreak below $52 support or a major AI-disruption catalyst (large client loss, guidance cut) would invalidate the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $56.61 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $56.61 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $50.49–$62.73 typical range · internal point $56.90 | — | ±10.8% | 6/10 | Sideways drift, low sentiment intensity, no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $63.39 on Sep 1, 2026 = +12.0% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 11.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±10.8%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.8% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $47.75–$65.47 typical range · internal point $57.40 | — | ±15.7% | 5/10 | Mild risk-on lift, negative beta caps upside |
| What actually happened: closed $61.88 on Sep 17, 2026 = +9.3% vs the call (predicted +1.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 7.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±15.7%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $58.80 | — | +3.9% | 5/10 | Slow grind higher as value screens attract flows |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $60.50 | — | +6.9% | 4/10 | Q3 print approaches, positioning improves |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $61.80 | — | +9.2% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalance favors discounted quality names |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $62.90 | — | +11.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $63.80 | — | +12.7% | 3/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline, gap to FV persists |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $63.88 (+12.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $56.61 |
| Composite fair value | $69.93 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $75.99 |
| DCF fair value | $76.44 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $73.79 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $52.00 |
| Value net score | +33 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +32 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 50.8% 3m 54.2% 6m 45.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.12 3m -0.57 5m -0.26 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -13.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 14d behind | CTSH-20260803-124340-5754 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTSH-20260817-101522-d457 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTSH-20260817-101522-d457 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTSH-20260817-101522-d457 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-CTSH-20260817-101522-d457 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | CTSH-20260803-124340-5754 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $56.61 | $63.80 | +12.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $55.17 | $63.50 | +15.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.