ASML
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ASML Holding N.V. NY Registered Shares
Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials
Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$1,883.12
6-month call
Bear -8.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$1,720.00
Great value below
$1,250.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.7% to $1,720.00
Predicted High
$1,955.00
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$1,720.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 3:09 am
Bear
ASML trends lower to
$1,720.00
(-8.7% from $1,883.12)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisASML trades far above every fair value anchor but momentum, AI-chokepoint narrative, and risk-on regime dominate near-term. Expect continued drift higher into autumn, then gradual mean reversion as value gravity and stretched positioning bite, though not fully to DCF.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $2,050 sustained, or a break below $1,650 within 6 weeks, would invalidate the ride-then-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $1,883.12 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $1,883.12 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $1,674.88–$2,091.36 typical range · internal point $1,915.00 | — | ±11.1% | 7/10 | momentum and risk-on tape extend near-term uptrend |
| What actually happened: closed $1,665.14 on Sep 1, 2026 = -11.6% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 13.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -0.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $1,581.35–$2,184.89 typical range · internal point $1,940.00 | — | ±16.0% | 6/10 | AI narrative and beta amplify continued rally |
| What actually happened: closed $1,629.67 on Sep 17, 2026 = -13.5% vs the call (predicted +3.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 16.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±16.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $1,955.00 | — | +3.8% | 5/10 | peak enthusiasm, positioning stretched into Q4 |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $1,890.00 | — | +0.4% | 4/10 | early fade as valuation gravity begins asserting |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $1,830.00 | — | -2.8% | 4/10 | year-end profit taking on extended winners |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $1,780.00 | — | -5.5% | 4/10 | January reset, rotation from crowded AI trades |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $1,720.00 | — | -8.7% | 3/10 | drift toward anchored-PE as narrative cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $1,635.02 (-13.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $1,883.12 |
| Composite fair value | $548.13 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $598.00 |
| DCF fair value | $369.13 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $1,222.20 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $1,250.00 |
| Value net score | -67 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +87 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 44.9% 3m 55.5% 6m 52.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.79 3m 2.62 5m 2.51 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 32.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 18d behind | ASML-20260730-001020-ecdd |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASML-20260817-101431-baf1 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASML-20260817-101431-baf1 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASML-20260817-101431-baf1 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASML-20260817-101431-baf1 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ASML-20260730-001020-ecdd |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ASML-20260730-001020-ecdd |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $1,883.12 | $1,720.00 | -8.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 30, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $1,550.69 | $1,590.00 | +2.5% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.