Made on
Aug 19, 2026
Price at call
$45.30
6-month call
Neutral +2.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$46.35
Great value below
$40.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+2.3% to $46.35
Predicted High
$46.40
at 4 months
Predicted Low
$45.45
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 19, 2026 8:30 pm
Neutral
EXC trends range-bound to
$46.35
(+2.3% from $45.30)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisLow-beta utility trading slightly below composite fair value with negative value/quality lenses but decent earnings track record. Expect gradual mean-reversion toward the $46-47 fair value anchor, with risk-on regime slightly capping upside as capital rotates elsewhere.
Invalidated ifBreak below $43.50 or above $48.50 on sustained volume invalidates the slow-drift thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $45.30 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 19, 2026 | — | $45.30 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 2, 2026 | $43.46–$47.14 typical range · internal point $45.45 | — | ±4.1% | 6/10 | Mild drift up toward fair value, no catalysts |
| 1 month | Sep 19, 2026 | $42.63–$47.97 typical range · internal point $45.65 | — | ±5.9% | 6/10 | Slow convergence, low-beta grinds higher |
| 2 months | Oct 19, 2026 | $45.90 | — | +1.3% | 5/10 | Utility rotation as risk-on fatigue sets in |
| 3 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $46.20 | — | +2.0% | 5/10 | Approaching composite fair value anchor |
| 4 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $46.40 | — | +2.4% | 4/10 | Year-end defensive positioning supports price |
| 5 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $46.15 | — | +1.9% | 4/10 | January earnings uncertainty caps upside |
| 6 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $46.35 | — | +2.3% | 4/10 | Settles near fair value composite anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $45.47 (+0.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $45.30 |
| Composite fair value | $46.84 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $46.51 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $45.03 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $40.00 |
| Value net score | -14 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -7 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 18.0% 3m 20.4% 6m 19.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.23 3m -0.41 5m -0.25 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -5.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 18, 2026 | 1d behind | EXC-20260818-002046-8f29 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXC-20260819-124653-d454 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXC-20260819-124653-d454 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXC-20260819-124653-d454 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-EXC-20260819-124653-d454 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | EXC-20260818-002046-8f29 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | EXC-20260819-002239-3182 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $45.30 | $46.35 | +2.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $47.53 | $49.20 | +3.5% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.