Made on
Aug 20, 2026
Price at call
$116.28
6-month call
Bull +12.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$130.75
Great value below
$108.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+12.4% to $130.75
Predicted High
$130.75
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$116.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 20, 2026 1:05 pm
Bull
CM trends higher to
$130.75
(+12.4% from $116.28)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCM is a low-beta compounder trading modestly below composite fair value ($137.93) with strong 6mo momentum (+21.9%) and a risk-on tape. Expect gradual grind toward fair value with mild early consolidation after the run, then convergence into the $130s over the next 6 months.
Invalidated ifBreak below $108 on volume or regime flip to risk-off with sector-wide bank selloff would falsify.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $116.28 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 20, 2026 | — | $116.28 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 3, 2026 | $111.01–$121.55 typical range · internal point $116.90 | — | ±4.5% | 6/10 | Quiet tape, low beta, drifts sideways near current |
| 1 month | Sep 20, 2026 | $108.64–$123.92 typical range · internal point $117.80 | — | ±6.6% | 6/10 | Mild upward drift, risk-on regime persists |
| 2 months | Oct 20, 2026 | $119.50 | — | +2.8% | 5/10 | Slow grind higher toward value anchor |
| 3 months | Nov 20, 2026 | $122.75 | — | +5.6% | 5/10 | Momentum resumes, fair value gravity pulls up |
| 4 months | Dec 20, 2026 | $125.60 | — | +8.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, compounder narrative intact |
| 5 months | Jan 20, 2027 | $128.40 | — | +10.4% | 4/10 | Convergence toward baseline endpoint continues |
| 6 months | Feb 20, 2027 | $130.75 | — | +12.4% | 4/10 | Approaches fair value band, near deterministic target |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $129.34 (+11.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $116.28 |
| Composite fair value | $137.93 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $140.83 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $137.93 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $108.00 |
| Value net score | +28 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +60 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 20.9% 3m 22.7% 6m 23.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.65 3m 0.41 5m 0.79 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 21.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | 12d behind | CM-20260808-000712-4354 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-CM-20260820-110312-2332 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-CM-20260820-110312-2332 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-CM-20260820-110312-2332 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-CM-20260820-110312-2332 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | CM-20260820-010343-2b7e |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | CM-20260820-010343-2b7e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.