Made on
Aug 21, 2026
Price at call
$52.76
6-month call
Bull +26.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$66.50
Great value below
$65.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+26.0% to $66.50
Predicted High
$66.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$50.90
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 21, 2026 1:10 pm
Bull
FISV trends higher to
$66.50
(+26.0% from $52.76)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisFISV screens as a cheap fallen-angel with strong long-term value pull toward the $95+ composite fair value, but a fresh guidance cut and -63 sentiment keep near-term pressure on. Expect early drift lower or sideways as the narrative bleeds off, then a gradual mean-reversion higher as value gravity and beat-heavy earnings history reassert over months.
Invalidated ifA close below $45 on heavy volume, or a second guidance cut, would break the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $52.76 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 21, 2026 | — | $52.76 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 4, 2026 | $48.00–$57.52 typical range · internal point $51.80 | — | ±9.0% | 7/10 | Sentiment overhang and guidance-cut drift dominate |
| What actually happened: closed $52.73 on Sep 3, 2026 = -0.1% vs the call (predicted -1.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±9.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 21, 2026 | $45.86–$59.66 typical range · internal point $50.90 | — | ±13.1% | 6/10 | Fallen-angel selling continues, no catalyst yet |
| What actually happened: closed $47.19 on Sep 18, 2026 = -10.6% vs the call (predicted -3.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.1%: inside the band · S&P -0.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $53.50 | — | +1.4% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, beat history supports stabilization |
Matured — awaiting scoring. This checkpoint's date has passed; the next scorer run
(score-outcomes.php) records what actually happened.
|
||||||
| 3 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $57.00 | — | +8.0% | 5/10 | Earnings beat reframes narrative, value buyers step in |
| 4 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $60.50 | — | +14.7% | 5/10 | Year-end mean reversion toward attractive-below level |
| 5 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $63.00 | — | +19.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward $65 fair-entry zone |
| 6 months | Feb 21, 2027 | $66.50 | — | +26.0% | 4/10 | Slow grind toward composite fair value baseline |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $72.94 (+38.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $52.76 |
| Composite fair value | $95.87 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $100.23 |
| DCF fair value | $101.82 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $65.00 |
| Value net score | +57 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +54 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 42.3% 3m 45.3% 6m 41.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.35 3m -0.17 5m 0.14 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -16.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 18d behind | FISV-20260802-132328-2218 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260821-122214-e050 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260821-122214-e050 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260821-122214-e050 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260821-122214-e050 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | FISV-20260821-120721-b745 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | FISV-20260821-120721-b745 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.