Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$61.35
6-month call
Bull +19.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$73.50
Great value below
$55.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+19.8% to $73.50
Predicted High
$73.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$61.10
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:01 pm
Bull
DOX trends higher to
$73.50
(+19.8% from $61.35)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisDOX trades well below composite fair value with quality and forensic support, but weak momentum and a minimal-intensity story mean convergence is gradual. Expect a slow drift higher as value gravity pulls toward the mid-70s, punctuated by a mild early consolidation given -12.5% trailing return and no near-term catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break below $55 on rising volume or a guidance cut would falsify the mean-reversion thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $61.35 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $61.35 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $57.02–$65.68 typical range · internal point $61.10 | — | ±7.1% | 6/10 | No catalyst, low-beta drift in calm tape |
| What actually happened: closed $62.21 on Sep 4, 2026 = +1.4% vs the call (predicted -0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.1%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $55.08–$67.62 typical range · internal point $62.20 | — | ±10.2% | 5/10 | Mild mean reversion off oversold trailing return |
| What actually happened: closed $58.79 on Sep 22, 2026 = -4.2% vs the call (predicted +1.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.6 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±10.2%: inside the band · S&P +1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $64.00 | — | +4.3% | 5/10 | Value screens begin attracting patient buyers |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $66.50 | — | +8.4% | 4/10 | Earnings window supports quality compounder narrative |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $68.75 | — | +12.1% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing favors defensive low-beta names |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $71.00 | — | +15.7% | 4/10 | Gradual convergence toward signal-adjusted fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $73.50 | — | +19.8% | 3/10 | Value gravity dominates as story slowly rerates |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $76.29 (+24.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $61.35 |
| Composite fair value | $91.87 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $88.48 |
| DCF fair value | $102.98 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $99.01 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $55.00 |
| Value net score | +27 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +39 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.9% 3m 35.4% 6m 31.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.54 3m -0.30 5m -0.03 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -12.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 19d behind | DOX-20260803-164946-c61e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOX-20260822-141313-48a9 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOX-20260822-141313-48a9 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOX-20260822-141313-48a9 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-DOX-20260822-141313-48a9 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | DOX-20260822-135806-607c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.