Made on
Aug 24, 2026
Price at call
$37.57
6-month call
Bull +28.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$48.20
Great value below
$34.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+28.3% to $48.20
Predicted High
$48.20
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$37.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 24, 2026 1:02 pm
Bull
G trends higher to
$48.20
(+28.3% from $37.57)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisG trades at a meaningful discount to composite fair value ($58.58) with solid quality and a strong beat streak, but weak sentiment and negative beta in a risk-on tape cap near-term upside. Path drifts modestly early then accelerates toward the anchored-PE zone as value gravity asserts over months.
Invalidated ifA close below $34 on heavy volume, or a guide-down/negative pre-announcement, would falsify the mean-reversion path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $37.57 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 24, 2026 | — | $37.57 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 7, 2026 | $34.45–$40.69 typical range · internal point $37.90 | — | ±8.3% | 6/10 | muted sentiment, risk-on tape drift, low near-term catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $37.32 on Sep 4, 2026 = -0.7% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±8.3%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 24, 2026 | $33.05–$42.09 typical range · internal point $38.60 | — | ±12.0% | 6/10 | slow grind as fallen-angel narrative stabilizes |
| What actually happened: closed $33.85 on Sep 23, 2026 = -9.9% vs the call (predicted +2.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 12.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±12.0%: inside the band · S&P +0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 24, 2026 | $40.20 | — | +7.0% | 5/10 | value screens attract as discount to FV widens attention |
| 3 months | Nov 24, 2026 | $42.50 | — | +13.1% | 5/10 | earnings window; beat streak supports re-rating |
| 4 months | Dec 24, 2026 | $44.80 | — | +19.3% | 4/10 | post-print momentum, anchored-PE gravity engaging |
| 5 months | Jan 24, 2027 | $46.50 | — | +23.8% | 4/10 | continued convergence toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 24, 2027 | $48.20 | — | +28.3% | 4/10 | approaching anchored-PE $49.91 as quality rewarded |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $49.63 (+32.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $37.57 |
| Composite fair value | $58.58 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $60.02 |
| DCF fair value | $69.90 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $49.91 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $34.00 |
| Value net score | +40 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +67 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 46.3% 3m 41.7% 6m 39.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.38 3m -0.72 5m -0.47 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -4.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 20d behind | G-20260803-164946-c090 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260824-001748-d379 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260824-001748-d379 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260824-001748-d379 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-G-20260824-001748-d379 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | G-20260819-122627-bb82 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | G-20260824-000001-42f6 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
7 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $37.32 | $46.00 | +23.3% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $38.11 | $47.50 | +24.7% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $37.68 | $45.80 | +21.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $37.57 | $48.20 | +28.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $36.41 | $44.10 | +21.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 14, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $34.37 | $42.30 | +23.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $35.16 | $43.50 | +23.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.