Made on
Aug 24, 2026
Price at call
$96.29
6-month call
Bull +10.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$106.80
Great value below
$85.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+10.9% to $106.80
Predicted High
$106.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$96.80
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 24, 2026 1:05 pm
Bull
DEO trends higher to
$106.80
(+10.9% from $96.29)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisDEO trades well below composite fair value ($122.54) with negative sentiment already priced in after restructuring headlines and a tired-compounder narrative. Risk-on regime and prior oversold behavior support gradual mean reversion toward the deterministic baseline of $107, though value gravity acts slowly on a low-beta staple.
Invalidated ifBreak below $88 on fresh guidance cut or spirits demand deterioration would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $96.29 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 24, 2026 | — | $96.29 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 7, 2026 | $90.37–$102.21 typical range · internal point $96.80 | — | ±6.1% | 6/10 | Near-term drift, no catalyst, risk-on tape supportive |
| What actually happened: closed $89.19 on Sep 4, 2026 = -7.4% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.1%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 24, 2026 | $87.72–$104.86 typical range · internal point $97.90 | — | ±8.9% | 5/10 | Slow grind higher as restructuring headline digested |
| What actually happened: closed $86.11 on Sep 23, 2026 = -10.6% vs the call (predicted +1.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 12.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 24, 2026 | $99.50 | — | +3.3% | 5/10 | Value buyers step in below fair value anchors |
| 3 months | Nov 24, 2026 | $101.80 | — | +5.7% | 4/10 | Mean reversion toward composite fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 24, 2026 | $103.50 | — | +7.5% | 4/10 | Holiday spirits seasonality, defensive rotation possible |
| 5 months | Jan 24, 2027 | $105.20 | — | +9.3% | 3/10 | Value convergence continues, low beta caps velocity |
| 6 months | Feb 24, 2027 | $106.80 | — | +10.9% | 3/10 | Approaches deterministic baseline as gap narrows |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $107.19 (+11.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $96.29 |
| Composite fair value | $122.54 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $119.58 |
| DCF fair value | $127.26 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $85.00 |
| Value net score | +31 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +13 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.2% 3m 30.8% 6m 38.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.12 3m -0.11 5m 0.35 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -5.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | DEO-20260824-020001-3e8b |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-DEO-20260824-045427-05bc |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-DEO-20260824-045427-05bc |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-DEO-20260824-045427-05bc |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-DEO-20260824-045427-05bc |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | DEO-20260824-020001-3e8b |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | DEO-20260824-020001-3e8b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $96.29 | $106.80 | +10.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $83.08 | $88.50 | +6.5% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.