Made on
Aug 25, 2026
Price at call
$134.81
6-month call
Bull +20.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$162.50
Great value below
$125.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+20.5% to $162.50
Predicted High
$162.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$135.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 25, 2026 1:08 pm
Bull
LDOS trends higher to
$162.50
(+20.5% from $134.81)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisLDOS trades well below composite fair value with steady defense fundamentals and consistent EPS beats, but sits in a neutral tape with weak 6-month momentum. Expect a slow grind higher as value gravity pulls toward the mid-160s, front-loaded consolidation then gradual mean reversion.
Invalidated ifA break below $125 bear scenario or a defense budget shock would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $134.81 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 25, 2026 | — | $134.81 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 8, 2026 | $124.11–$145.51 typical range · internal point $135.50 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | Neutral tape, low beta, minimal near-term catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $133.05 on Sep 4, 2026 = -1.3% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±7.9%: inside the band · S&P +0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 25, 2026 | $119.30–$150.32 typical range · internal point $137.80 | — | ±11.5% | 6/10 | Slow drift as value buyers nibble sub-135 |
| What actually happened: closed $123.35 on Sep 24, 2026 = -8.5% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $142.00 | — | +5.3% | 5/10 | Defense narrative firms, mean reversion begins |
| 3 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $148.50 | — | +10.2% | 5/10 | Earnings season lifts quality names, beat streak |
| 4 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $153.00 | — | +13.5% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation into defensive cash flow |
| 5 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $158.00 | — | +17.2% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 25, 2027 | $162.50 | — | +20.5% | 4/10 | Convergence toward baseline endpoint, momentum lags |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $164.47 (+22.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $134.81 |
| Composite fair value | $184.33 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $210.15 |
| DCF fair value | $206.79 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $209.96 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $125.00 |
| Value net score | +24 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +58 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 48.4% 3m 39.8% 6m 35.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.06 3m 0.58 5m 0.36 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -19.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 21d behind | LDOS-20260803-122903-4371 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260825-004359-ccc2 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260825-004359-ccc2 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260825-004359-ccc2 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LDOS-20260825-004359-ccc2 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | LDOS-20260825-003001-258e |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | LDOS-20260825-003001-258e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
6 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $142.28 | $164.50 | +15.6% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $140.34 | $164.00 | +16.9% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $134.81 | $162.50 | +20.5% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 20, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $142.04 | $168.50 | +18.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $140.38 | $165.00 | +17.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $130.60 | $157.50 | +20.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.