ZTS
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Zoetis Inc. Class A Common Stock
Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$78.03
6-month call
Bull +9.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$85.10
Great value below
$68.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+9.1% to $85.10
Predicted High
$85.30
at 5 months
Predicted Low
$78.60
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:01 pm
Bull
ZTS trends higher to
$85.10
(+9.1% from $78.03)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisZTS trades well below composite fair value after a punishing 40% drawdown, with sentiment stabilizing around FDA wins and a Burry disclosure. Low beta and no near-term earnings catalyst suggest a slow grind higher toward the deterministic $85 baseline as value gravity works, with modest early drift.
Invalidated ifBreak below $68 on renewed guide cut, or failure to reclaim $82 by m3 would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $78.03 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $78.03 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $72.97–$83.09 typical range · internal point $78.60 | — | ±6.5% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, neutral tape, no catalyst near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $73.56 on Sep 8, 2026 = -5.7% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.5%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $70.69–$85.37 typical range · internal point $79.40 | — | ±9.4% | 6/10 | Burry disclosure tailwind, risk-on regime supports mild bid |
| What actually happened: closed $71.05 on Sep 25, 2026 = -9.0% vs the call (predicted +1.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $80.90 | — | +3.7% | 5/10 | Value buyers step in below composite fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $82.50 | — | +5.7% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, positioning into results |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $84.20 | — | +7.9% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift if beat streak continues |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $85.30 | — | +9.3% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $85.10 | — | +9.1% | 3/10 | Value gravity meets DCF resistance near $85 |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $84.86 (+8.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $78.03 |
| Composite fair value | $97.86 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $94.37 |
| DCF fair value | $74.35 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $170.26 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $68.00 |
| Value net score | +3 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +69 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 40.2% 3m 32.6% 6m 46.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.38 3m -0.19 5m 0.31 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -39.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 26d behind | ZTS-20260730-170254-8439 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260825-180242-bc75 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260825-180242-bc75 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260825-180242-bc75 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ZTS-20260825-180242-bc75 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ZTS-20260813-001151-fb8a |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ZTS-20260813-001151-fb8a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.