Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$52.35
6-month call
Bull +22.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$64.00
Great value below
$60.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+22.3% to $64.00
Predicted High
$64.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$50.10
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:02 pm
Bull
FISV trends higher to
$64.00
(+22.3% from $52.35)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisFISV is deeply undervalued but trapped in a fallen-angel narrative post-guidance cut and activist trim. Near-term drift stays heavy as tax-loss and sentiment overhang persist, then value gravity and a fresh calendar year draw contrarian buyers as the story stabilizes into Q4 print and 2027 reset.
Invalidated ifBreak below $45 on further guidance cut, or failure to reclaim $60 after any positive catalyst, would falsify the recovery leg.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $52.35 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $52.35 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $47.65–$57.05 typical range · internal point $51.20 | — | ±9.0% | 6/10 | Sentiment overhang and risk-on rotation away from laggards |
| What actually happened: closed $50.86 on Sep 8, 2026 = -2.9% vs the call (predicted -2.2%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.7 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±9.0%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $45.54–$59.16 typical range · internal point $50.10 | — | ±13.0% | 5/10 | Fallen-angel drift continues absent catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $46.48 on Sep 25, 2026 = -11.2% vs the call (predicted -4.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.9 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.0%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $52.80 | — | +0.9% | 4/10 | Value buyers probe sub-$60 attractive zone |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $56.50 | — | +7.9% | 5/10 | Q3 print stabilization, beat streak reasserts |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $54.00 | — | +3.2% | 4/10 | Tax-loss selling pressures year-end |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $60.50 | — | +15.6% | 5/10 | January reset, new-year contrarian rotation into laggards |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $64.00 | — | +22.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value asserts |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $73.56 (+40.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $52.35 |
| Composite fair value | $108.14 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $112.18 |
| DCF fair value | $89.04 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $171.62 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $60.00 |
| Value net score | +63 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +57 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 41.8% 3m 45.0% 6m 41.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.38 3m -0.14 5m 0.11 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 23d behind | FISV-20260802-132328-2218 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260825-180247-34a4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260825-180247-34a4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260825-180247-34a4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-FISV-20260825-180247-34a4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | FISV-20260821-120721-b745 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | FISV-20260821-120721-b745 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.