TTD
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The Trade Desk, Inc. Class A Common Stock
Communication Services · Advertising Agencies
Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$13.00
6-month call
Bull +26.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$16.40
Great value below
$15.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+26.2% to $16.40
Predicted High
$16.40
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$13.15
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:03 pm
Bull
TTD trends higher to
$16.40
(+26.2% from $13.00)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisTTD is deeply oversold on a broken growth narrative but trades well below every fair-value anchor. In a risk-on tape with no imminent catalyst, expect basing and slow mean-reversion toward the mid-teens, with sentiment slowly thawing as ad-tech comps stabilize.
Invalidated ifBreak below $9.50 on fresh guidance cut, or failure to reclaim $14 within two months, invalidates the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $13.00 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $13.00 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $11.14–$14.86 typical range · internal point $13.15 | — | ±14.3% | 6/10 | Oversold bounce in risk-on tape, no news |
| What actually happened: closed $14.02 on Sep 8, 2026 = +7.9% vs the call (predicted +1.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 6.7 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±14.3%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $10.30–$15.70 typical range · internal point $13.40 | — | ±20.8% | 5/10 | Basing action as sellers exhaust near lows |
| What actually happened: closed $12.60 on Sep 25, 2026 = -3.1% vs the call (predicted +3.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 6.2 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±20.8%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $14.10 | — | +8.5% | 5/10 | Value buyers step in below fair-value anchors |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $14.75 | — | +13.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print potential catalyst, beat history helps |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $15.20 | — | +17.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, ad-tech sentiment thaws |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $15.80 | — | +21.6% | 4/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $16.40 | — | +26.2% | 3/10 | Slow grind higher as narrative rebuilds |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $15.83 (+21.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $13.00 |
| Composite fair value | $17.31 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $19.88 |
| DCF fair value | $19.60 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $21.73 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $15.00 |
| Value net score | +45 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +68 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 99.1% 3m 72.0% 6m 68.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.27 3m 0.77 5m 0.67 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -46.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 26d behind | TTD-20260730-143259-1bed |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260825-180256-63b4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260825-180256-63b4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260825-180256-63b4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-TTD-20260825-180256-63b4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | TTD-20260813-001111-7624 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | TTD-20260813-001111-7624 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
7 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $14.44 | $18.40 | +27.4% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.78 | $16.60 | +20.5% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.55 | $16.50 | +21.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.00 | $16.40 | +26.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.16 | $17.60 | +33.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $13.49 | $19.40 | +43.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 4, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $19.10 | $19.33 | +1.2% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.