Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$88.96
6-month call
Bear -10.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$80.00
Great value below
$65.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.1% to $80.00
Predicted High
$89.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$80.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:10 pm
Bear
DXCM trends lower to
$80.00
(-10.1% from $88.96)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisDXCM trades far above composite fair value with a fading platform-monopoly narrative and Abbott competitive pressure weighing on sentiment, but recent momentum (21.6% trailing 6mo) and a risk-on regime cushion near-term downside. Path drifts sideways-to-lower as valuation gravity slowly reasserts, roughly tracking the deterministic baseline.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above 100 on positive CGM share data or a break below 75 on Abbott share gains would falsify the slow-drift thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $88.96 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $88.96 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $81.25–$96.67 typical range · internal point $89.50 | — | ±8.7% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum support near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $84.53 on Sep 8, 2026 = -5.0% vs the call (predicted +0.6%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.6 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±8.7%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $77.79–$100.13 typical range · internal point $88.00 | — | ±12.6% | 6/10 | Sentiment headwind begins to offset momentum |
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $85.50 | — | -3.9% | 5/10 | Competitive drumbeat pressures multiple modestly |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $83.00 | — | -6.7% | 5/10 | Value gravity toward anchored-PE 88 fades lower |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $82.00 | — | -7.8% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, no catalyst to reverse trend |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $81.00 | — | -8.9% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings drift as fair-value pull continues |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $80.00 | — | -10.1% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $80.11 (-9.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $88.96 |
| Composite fair value | $39.98 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $49.32 |
| DCF fair value | $29.00 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $88.60 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $65.00 |
| Value net score | -51 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +68 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 49.1% 3m 43.5% 6m 41.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.90 3m 0.53 5m 0.63 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 21.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | DXCM-20260826-010001-9388 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-DXCM-20260826-012429-df5b |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-DXCM-20260826-012429-df5b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-DXCM-20260826-012429-df5b |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-DXCM-20260826-012429-df5b |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | DXCM-20260826-010001-9388 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | DXCM-20260826-010001-9388 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $90.07 | $79.00 | -12.3% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $88.96 | $80.00 | -10.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.