ACN
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Accenture plc Class A ordinary shares
Technology · Information Technology Services
Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$189.57
6-month call
Bull +8.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$206.50
Great value below
$165.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+8.9% to $206.50
Predicted High
$206.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$188.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:00 pm
Bull
ACN trends higher to
$206.50
(+8.9% from $189.57)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisACN trades near composite fair value with a mild AI-disruption sentiment overhang but strong quality and consistent earnings beats. Expect a gradual grind higher toward the signal-adjusted fair value as risk-on regime and defensive-compounder bid reassert, with fade risk if AI-disruption narrative intensifies.
Invalidated ifBreak below $175 on AI-disruption headlines or a guidance cut would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $189.57 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $189.57 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $190.50 | — | +0.5% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime supports modest drift near fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $175.80 on Sep 9, 2026 = -7.3% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P -1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $188.00 | — | -0.8% | 5/10 | Sentiment overhang caps upside near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $176.11 on Sep 25, 2026 = -7.1% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 6.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $192.75 | — | +1.7% | 5/10 | Defensive bid returns as tape steadies |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $197.00 | — | +3.9% | 5/10 | Quality compounder re-rating begins toward anchor |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $201.50 | — | +6.3% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors quality names |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $204.00 | — | +7.6% | 4/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $206.50 | — | +8.9% | 4/10 | Drift toward signal-adjusted fair value $208.80 |
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $204.53 (+7.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Too little price history for ACN to size the realism noise — using a default volatility.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $189.57 |
| Composite fair value | $187.46 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $208.80 |
| DCF fair value | $213.31 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $202.32 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $165.00 |
| Value net score | +41 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +78 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m — 3m — 6m — |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | — |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m — 3m — 5m — |
| Trailing 6-month return | — |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 23d behind | ACN-20260803-133649-044a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260826-151454-f99d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260826-151454-f99d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260826-151454-f99d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ACN-20260826-151454-f99d |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ACN-20260822-135314-80b9 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ACN-20260822-135314-80b9 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
7 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $190.28 | $206.00 | +8.3% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $189.57 | $206.50 | +8.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $185.26 | $205.75 | +11.1% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $165.76 | $186.00 | +12.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jul 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $146.99 | $176.50 | +20.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $140.86 | $172.00 | +22.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
| Jul 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $135.23 | $209.98 | +55.3% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.