Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$108.04
6-month call
Bull +16.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$126.00
Great value below
$98.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+16.6% to $126.00
Predicted High
$126.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$107.20
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:01 pm
Bull
SCHW trends higher to
$126.00
(+16.6% from $108.04)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisSCHW is a stable low-beta compounder trading well below composite fair value ($145), in a risk-on tape with strong earnings consistency but facing near-term sentiment drag from Vanguard encroachment headlines. Expect mild early chop as the headline digests, then gradual drift toward value as fundamentals reassert over the six-month window.
Invalidated ifA break below $98 on sustained volume, or a material fee-compression announcement confirming Vanguard's competitive threat, would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $108.04 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $108.04 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $103.09–$112.99 typical range · internal point $107.20 | — | ±4.6% | 6/10 | Vanguard headline weighs, mild sentiment drag persists |
| What actually happened: closed $106.54 on Sep 9, 2026 = -1.4% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.6 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±4.6%: inside the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $100.86–$115.22 typical range · internal point $108.50 | — | ±6.6% | 6/10 | Headline digested, low-beta stability reasserts |
| What actually happened: closed $99.03 on Sep 25, 2026 = -8.3% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 8.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $112.00 | — | +3.7% | 5/10 | Risk-on regime lifts financials, value gap noticed |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $116.50 | — | +7.8% | 5/10 | Q4 print anticipation, sixth straight beat likely |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $120.00 | — | +11.1% | 5/10 | Post-earnings drift, DCF gravity pulls higher |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $123.50 | — | +14.3% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $126.00 | — | +16.6% | 4/10 | Approaching deterministic baseline as value asserts |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $125.17 (+15.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $108.04 |
| Composite fair value | $145.35 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $151.78 |
| DCF fair value | $137.54 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $160.98 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $98.00 |
| Value net score | +44 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +59 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.7% 3m 23.0% 6m 26.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.12 3m -0.09 5m 0.06 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 10.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | 23d behind | SCHW-20260804-002630-6c95 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCHW-20260826-151510-7f20 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCHW-20260826-151510-7f20 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCHW-20260826-151510-7f20 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-SCHW-20260826-151510-7f20 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | SCHW-20260824-003001-eab4 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | SCHW-20260824-003001-eab4 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
9 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $104.88 | $134.00 | +27.8% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $109.28 | $133.00 | +21.7% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $109.92 | $126.50 | +15.1% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $108.04 | $126.00 | +16.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 24, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $113.10 | $132.00 | +16.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $110.86 | $133.50 | +20.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 14, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $110.06 | $134.50 | +22.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $105.87 | $123.50 | +16.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Jun 29, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $90.67 | $93.34 | +2.9% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.